Week 3 picks
by Tom on Sep.26, 2004, under Uncategorized
Quick picks for this weeks NFL (w/spreads, thanks to the Stardust in Vegas, home team in CAPS):
TENNESSEE -6 over Jacksonville
I’m still not a believer in the Jaguars. Defense is nice, and some people are calling them the new Panthers, but teams that don’t score touchdowns don’t win. Plus, I’m expecting a big day from Chris Brown, regardless of what the people say about the Jags defense.
Cleveland +3.5 over GIANTS
The Giants seriously lucked out over the Redskins last week. They got 7 turnovers from the Skins due to Washington errors, not Giant skill. Cleveland’s coming off a bad loss, but there’s still talent in this team.
Baltimore -2.5 over CINCINNATI
Tough to take a road dog especially with a team that can’t score themselves, but mediocre quarterbacks cancel themselves out. Palmer couldn’t handle Miami’s defense last week, he’s shit the bed against Ray Lewis. Take the under (34.5) if you happen to be around it too.
Houston +7.5 over KANSAS CITY
Ok, you’ve had injuries to your two top wide receivers, your all-offense running back isn’t playing this week, and your defense is giving up 31 points a game. Yet, you’re a touchdown favorite over a team that some were calling a sleeper pick to get the wild card this year. Chiefs have to earn my respect back.
New Orleans +6.5 over ST. LOUIS
Just something about that team that I don’t like (meaning the Rams). I don’t think the Saints are going to necessarily win the game, although I think the loss of Deuce McAllister isn’t going to hurt them as much as some would think. New Orleans has too many passing options. The over/under is 47.5, I’d consider taking the over too, but that’s not a strong bet.
MINNESOTA -11 over Chicago
No respect given to a team that flat out beat Green Bay at Lambeau. I understand why - the Bears just aren’t that good. Someone’s going to figure out Thomas Jones eventually. Minnesota’s pissed off going into this game - they felt like they should have beaten Philadelphia.
Philadelphia -5.5 over DETROIT
Nope. Not a believer here either. I think Detroit’s going to be a quality 8-8 team this year. It’s just that I think Philadelphia’s going to be a 13-3 team. This has the potential of being an upset, but not this early in the season. These same two teams playing in week 8 or 9, I’d pick the Lions.
ATLANTA -10 over Arizona
That’s a lot of points to give up for Atlanta, but considering Arizona’s averaging 11 points a game, I think the Falcons should be able to put three TDs on the board. They’re not playing bad defense either.
San Diego +10 over DENVER
I think the Chargers could flat out win this game, let alone giving me 10 points. Denver hasn’t impressed me in the slightest, and Quentin Griffin and Jake Plummer aren’t scaring anybody. Plus, you’ve got LT in the backfield for the Bolts. Upset special, my friends.
INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 over Green Bay
You have to add a point or three for home teams playing in a dome. As long as they have fans that get on their feet and behind the team, you’ve got a definate advantage. This only works if you have the fans. Arizona gets a dome, it’s not working. Indy’s got too many weapons, and they’re still trying to prove their the best team in the AFC. Green Bay’s a 9-7 team at best.
SEATTLE -10 over San Francisco
In contrast, I don’t see the Seahawks as getting too much of a boost from their home crowd. Doesn’t matter. This one was almost picked the other way, but again, I think it’s too early to go against Seattle. Week 8, I’m picking the Niners. Here, it’s the Seahawks.
OAKLAND -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Hurry up, get off soon, the Tampa bandwagon’s going down in flames. It’s what happens when you can’t score ANY touchdowns. Seriously, the Bucs haven’t scored an offensive touchdown this season. Oakland’s got a high risk offense, and if you ignored Rich Gannon’s 2003 season, you’d be expecting a huge game from him. Oakland’s going to throw the ball a LOT. WHy the hell didn’t Norv Turner try this with Miami?
MIAMI -1.5 over Pittsburgh
No, I don’t know why. Just a hunch. Maybe this is the game Miami figures out what to do with their offense. Maybe they figure out something that works. Pittsburgh shouldn’t be able to score too many times, so it might be the Dolphins defense that does the scoring for them. Or, maybe… just maybe they’ll try throwing the ball. We’ll see.
WASHINGTON -1.5 over Dallas
My loser pool pick. It’s really a coin flip game, but I think the Skins pull this one out. At least they can develop a running game. I’m starting to realize that if Ricky Williams had announced his retirement two weeks earlier and Eddie George signed with the Dolphins, it wouldn’t have made a difference.
