I think people were expecting a little too much from John Smoltz. While I don’t think that tonight’s performance (1 2/3 innings, 7 runs, 6 earned) was indicative of his 2005 season, I do think that those expecting the Smoltz of the 90s to reappear and win 20 games are in for a rude awakening.
First off, remember Smoltz hasn’t pitched more than 81 innings in a season in the 21st century. Smoltz had Tommy John surgery after the 1999 season and when he made an earlier return than expected in 2001, he made only five starts before going on the DL and being switched to the closer’s role on his return. Second, remember too that Smoltz will be 38 years old next month — not the age when one expects a pitcher to start tripling his workload.
While Smoltz’s return to the rotation made for a good story, it was done probably a few years too late. As a 38 year old with 285 innings pitched in the last four years, Smoltz isn’t in a position to dominate games like he used to. He’s a 6–7 inning pitcher now, at best, and he’s not going to be dominant like he was in 2003, when he posted a 1.12 ERA.
I’m still expecting 14 wins out of him, an ERA around 4, and maybe 170 innings pitched.
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