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The Case for Jose Mesa

Damn Tampa for drawing me back to the blog. Chuck LaMar makes my head hurt though. Quoted from ESPN's Insider (which is just itself quoting the New York Post):

According to The New York Post, the Mets have intensified their discussions for closer Danys Baez. Devil Rays' GM Chuck LaMar is known for his high demands in trades, and wants top prospects for Baez, who is making $3.5 million this year and has a $4 million team option for next season or a $1 million buyout.

Because of the D-Rays' outfield depth, the team's priorities are pitchers and infielders, the St. Petersburg Times reports. "If we get the right deal, we'll make it," LaMar told the newspaper. "If not, we're happy to stay with where we are and keep improving."

I'm glad for Chuck LaMar that there's interest in Danys Baez. One of the smartest things a GM or manager can do is take one of their veteran relievers and put them in a closer role. There's nothing more glorious than a closer. A middle reliever could pitch 60 games and put up a sub 2 ERA and get ignored, but a mediocre closer with a 4 ERA and 30 saves is in high demand. Baez (although not that old - only 27) fits this profile; not outstanding any time in his career, Baez is closing for the Devil Rays - a team that needs a closer like the Yankees need to expand payroll - and having a mediocre season. 3.18 ERA, but a 1.39 WHIP and a 1.71 K/BB ratio. Yet, he's in demand - the White Sox and Mets are apparently interested, and if you're to believe the Insider, so are 5 other teams (6 if you count listing the White Sox twice). Now, the Sox and Mets are currently using closers with stats comparable (if not better) than Baez, so neither is desperately in need of a "closer" - they need a relief pitcher. Chuck LaMar is remembering the glory of one trade that was made last season, but in the process, forgetting another that wasn't made, or the case for Jose Mesa.

Jose Mesa was pitching extremely well for Pittsburgh last season in a closer role. Mesa was signed for a low one year deal by the Pirates in one of the team's "buy low - sell high" processes that never seem to work correctly. When the trading deadline approached, many assumed that the Pirates would flip Mesa to a contending team in need of relief help for prospects, and put a younger pitcher in the closer role. The Pirates didn't, however. They held out for the big deal that never arrived, because Mesa's aura as a "closer" wasn't enough to cut past the fact he was still Jose Mesa - right handed relief pitcher. Teams looked in other directions, and the Pirates were stuck with a 30+ year old closer on a team that rarely needed closing, who was going to leave at the end of the season anyway. Of course, Pittsburgh justified this by re-signing the thirtysomething Mesa to two more years, only to see if the magic could work again this season.

Tampa looks to be falling into the same situation with Baez. However, Tampa GM Chuck LaMar ignores the Case for Mesa and brings up the Zambrano Defense, something he'll likely take with him to his grave. Last season, while Mets GM Jim Duquette was either attempting to be fired or had finished off a bottle of Absinthe when he called Chuck LaMar to enquire about ball of potential Victor Zambrano. The Mets were in need of starting pitchers under the age of 37, and Zambrano was in his second season of keeping his ERA under 5. Chuck, apparently showing his high demands in trades, asked for top Mets prospect Scott Kazmir - a pitcher who at the time might have been as good as Zambrano, except with more upside and 9 years younger. Duquette accepted, and LaMar giggled like a schoolgirl, having apparently pulled off the greatest trade of his GM career.

Now whether LaMar thinks he can do it again or perhaps he feels he can get Baez's sudden popularity to get people to bid against themselves, the fatal error here is that Zambrano, with all his shortcomings, was still a starting pitcher. Starting pitchers are always overvalued at the trade deadline because you can put any pitcher in the bullpen, but you can't always take a pitcher in the bullpen and put him in the starting rotation. Immedately, starters have more value over relievers, especially mediocre ones like Baez. Chuck would be better off forgetting the Zambrano deal and remembering the Case for Mesa, lest he and Baez be sitting in the clubhouse in August with the memory of every other team in the league telling him "sorry, not interested."

I’m back.

I've missed writing in this thing, and I think that if I don't necessarily write in it daily (as was promised before), I think I can balance everything. I won't ramble on about that - let's just get down to business.

So the Yankees got their ass handed to them, 17-1.

As impressive as that is, what seems to be lost in the message board flamewars is that it's just... one... game. One game in the Major League Baseball season is 1/162 of the determining factor (that's .6 of 1%) when it comes to the final outcome of the regular season. While it may be reflective of things to come (although considering who was pitching - it's only reflective if the Yankees can't deal with their starting pitching woes), it's not like it's a major blow.

That isn't to say that the win is worthless. Obviously, it puts the Yankees another game back of the Sox, but perhaps it gives the Red Sox momentum to take the final two games of the series. A 17-1 loss is demeaning, and can crush the spirit of a team. The Yankees seem to be in such a shambles as a roster right now that it's a perfect opportunity for the Sox to roll off of that and take the final two games and put the Yankees 4.5 games back. That makes an impact - not one game, no matter how many runs you win by.

As it turns out, if the Yankees should happen to win the final two games of the series, it would leave the Yankees a half game behind Boston and likely knock Boston out of first, as the Orioles are only a game behind them currently.

This is one of the main reasons why some people can't get into baseball until the playoffs roll around. In a 162 game season, individual games are almost worthless - while some fans seem to react like it's life or death when their team wins or loses, a baseball fan can see one loss and shrug it off, blaming it on a bad game by the pitcher or some stupid error that a fielder made. Football, in contrast, has only a 16 game season - each win and loss there is equal to a 10 game winning or losing streak in baseball, which definately has an impact on fan feelings and how a team looks towards the next games.

But what can baseball do? They can't reduce the number of games - the schedule has been set in stone already, if only for recordkeeping purposes. MLB saw the effect that Sosa and McGwire's chase for Maris' record in 1998 had on the sport. Reducing the number of games to 154 (as it was before the 1961 season) or more puts records like those all the more out of reach. Milestones become more difficult to reach, and as difficult as it is for current players to get respect for their accomplishments (Rafael Palmeiro is a perfect example, having hit 500+ home runs and 3000 hits, and people are still doubtful of his Hall of Fame chances), reducing the numbers is going to make it even more difficult.

So settle down Boston fans - while yesterday's score may have been 17-1, the real score is 6-5 Boston, with 8 games left to play.