The Buhner.com Blog

We interrupt your regularly scheduled gloating about Tampa to address current events.

Rafael Palmeiro, who recently hit his 3,000th career hit, who broke the 500 home run mark in 2003, failed a drug test under Major League Baseball’s newer drug policy that includes testing for steroids, performance enhancing drugs, and agents that mask them. What, exactly, Palmeiro is being accused of taken is unknown, and will likely never be known unless Palmeiro himself says what they are. Palmeiro has already gone on record as saying that he did not take any steroid of any kind. He’s since amended this statement to say that he hasn’t taken any steroid of any kind “knowingly”, maintaining his innocence despite having evidence otherwise.

The question with Palmeiro is whether or not he’s to be believed. Palmeiro’s main argument - that holds any water at least - is one of logic. Palmeiro asks why he’d be taking steroids at this point of his career. Palmeiro is 40 years old, and has admitted himself that this is likely his last year in baseball. Palmeiro’s only reason for staying, from an outsider’s perspective, is his love for the game, or to get that 3,000th hit, which would help his Hall of Fame case. Either way, there would be no reason for the steroid use - Steroids don’t help with getting base hits, and “enjoyment of the game” means just being happy to be there, which most beer league softball players would kill to sit on the bench of a major league team, having fans aska bout autographs.

But let’s play with a senerio. Perhaps Palmeiro was a steroid user in the past. With sanctions in place and suspensions looming for players who use them, Palmeiro looks at his career and decides that he doesn’t need the juice in ‘05. He’s going to go out, play every day for a mediocre Orioles team, put up numbers that are lower than his normal, but that’s to be expected of a 40 year old in his final season. He’ll get his 3,000th hit (he only needed 78), move aside if need be, and call it a career at the end of the season.

But there was a bump in the road. Palmeiro hits bad in April, putting up an ugly .247/.298/.325 line. He’s not getting the cheers that he was, and he’s losing his spot at first base and finding himself DHing more. This wouldn’t be so bad if the Orioles were in 3rd or 4th, but the Orioles as a team are outperforming expectations, despite Palmeiro’s performance. Instead of going out like a hero, Palmeiro’s being looked at as the reason the O’s are being held back. Rumors swirl that the O’s are looking into bringing in Todd Helton. If it comes down to going to the playoffs or giving Raffy his 3,000th hit, what do you think the Orioles are going to do? He saw what happened with Fred McGriff, who couldn’t get the opportunity to just hit 9 more home runs to hit 500. Already a question mark for the Hall of Fame, if he couldn’t get hit #3000, his argument would be that much harder.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. In the month of May, Palmeiro suddenly snaps out of his funk, batting .302/.412/.558 in May with 6 home runs. Dropping off a little in June, he continued his hot hitting in July, putting up a .280/.354/.472 with 18 home runs at the time of his suspension. The feel good story (he got his 3,000th hit) finally takes the hit when he gets busted.

What did Palmeiro have to lose? Perhaps he felt he wasn’t getting into the Hall of Fame without hit 3,000, and wasn’t going to get 3,000 unless he started hitting the ball better, and therefore had to take measures into his own hands. If he takes the juice, there’s three outcomes - he takes it and gets hit 3,000, enjoys a last run at the playoffs, and rides off into the sunset; he takes the steroids, it doesn’t help him, and he leaves just short (damn age); or he takes the juice, gets busted, and doesn’t make the Hall anyway (or maybe even does, who knows?) If he doesn’t take them, there’s only one outcome in his eyes - failure.

Palmeiro’s case is very similar to that of that of Shelley Levene in Glengarry Glen Ross. He tries to do his job, sees himself starting to fail, fears losing his job, and takes desperate measures into his own hands. Levene, like Palmeiro, seemed to succeed thanks to their rule-bending, but in the end, both end up getting caught in the end.

In Palmeiro’s case though, he might still get away with it.