The Buhner.com Blog

It’s that time again.  No, not time for the momma joke of the night (that’s I’m Chillin’, which showcased Chris Farley’s wide-ranging rhyming talent), but for my yearly overview of the Yankees roster and possible moves for the offseason.  For those of you new to this, unlike a decent amount of Yankee fans I actually take thought into the process and go into contracts, value, roster status, how well the players would fit into the roster, and other aspects of the transaction process that people like Brian Cashman have to think about, but those of us who generally live in a roto baseball world don’t.  I’ll cut this off here and thow up the “click here to read more” thing in order not to make the page incredibly long and hide other posts.

I wrote this over at another board:

The Yankee payroll goes down 19.65 million going into the offseason, factoring in raises (Jeter, Giambi, Abreu, Posada, Pavano, Farnsworth, Myers), assuming Sheffield’s $13 salary gets traded, assuming that Mussina’s option gets picked up (Posada’s is guaranteed due to games played), and assuming that Wright’s option gets picked up for 2007 instead of saving $3 million and letting him walk.  

In that senerio, the Yankees lose:
Sheffield
Craig Wilson
Cory Lidle
Octavio Dotel
Ron Villone
Tanyon Sturze
Bernie Williams
Miguel Cairo
Aaron Small

Outside of that, the Yanks have potentially one arbitration case (Aaron Guiel, who probably would get nontendered if he’s eligible).

So the 25 man roster would tentatively look like this (leaving off Sheffield and assuming the option on Wright gets picked up and Pavano doesn’t drive into a tree suffer a setback in rehab):

CATCHERS
Jorge Posada

INFIELDERS
Andy Phillips
Jason Giambi
Robinson Cano
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter

OUTFIELDERS
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Bobby Abreu
Hideki Matsui

STARTERS
Randy Johnson
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Jaret Wright

RELIEVERS
Mariano Rivera
Scott Proctor
Kyle Farnsworth
Mike Myers

With six slots to fill, the Yankees need a backup catcher and at least two more bullpen guys (maybe three or even four if Pavano and Wright are in the rotation). From there you have one to three more filler slots for position players - Torre loves his backup middle infielders, so one in there, a righthanded hitter who can play outfield, and maybe a fulltime first baseman who is good defensively so that Giambi can stay at DH? Otherwise you have Giambi on first and a rotating outfield with Cabrara giving Damon/Matsui/Abreu a rest.

Of course, with Pavano pencilled in the roster and in the rotation, there’s no guarantee there, so starting pitching will have to get looked at whether they go the Matsuzaka route or not. What’s Sean Casey going to go for on the market? Casey seems like the kind of player the Yankee clubhouse could use.

That’s the kind of verbal diarrhea that I spit out sometimes on those boards; stuff that I should probably be putting over here.  Although admittedly I’d have a bigger audience over there.  At least for now.  I’ll wait as you call friends.

Done?  Good.  Some things have changed since I made that post (a little more than two weeks ago), namely decisions have been made in regards to Sheffield, Wright, and Mussina.  Sheffield, as expected, gets dealt off.  What wasn’t expected was that it’d still be in the American League (to the Tigers) and what wasn’t known was what the Yankees would get in return, and how that would effect the 25 man roster.

The Yanks got three prospects, the best of which is Humberto Sanchez, a hefty Domincan who can hit 97 on the radar gun and who looks to be major league ready, or very close to it.  The issue with Sanchez is that he seems injury prone, and has never pitched more than the 123 innings he pitched last season.  He started all but four games in his minor league career and I’m sure the Yankees would prefer him to start, but that depends on a few things.  The other two prospects are both relievers, and while they both have potential neither are likely to make the 25 man roster out of Spring Training, barring something unusual.

Wright was dealt with $4 million bucks to Baltimore for reliever Chris Britton, equating the amount of money the Yanks would have had to pay to buy Wright out of his contract, and in turn getting a body in return.  Britton, who is listed at 6′3″, 278 pounds on ESPN’s website, gets me a little concerns because of the weight (although from some pics I’ve seen, he doesn’t necessarily look too sloppy or anything), but he pitched well last season for the Orioles after pitching in High-A ball last season and dominating there (6-0, 1.60 ERA, 12.58 K per 9 innings), the sole exception being a tough August, where he posted an ERA of 11.12 and was sent down to AA Bowie.  He has to be counted in the mix for the 25 man roster.

The Yanks didn’t exercise Mussina’s option, instead negociating an extension with him for the next two years at $22.5 million, a significant decrease from his $17 million option year this season.  I can’t argue with it - assuming the contract is technically a “free agent” signing and the Yanks just declined the option (and paid him $1.5 million for the buyout), it’s $12 million a year, saving the club $5 million and bringing back a 39 year old Mussina at $12 million in 2008 (although I haven’t seen details of the contract - there could be other factors in there or how the money is split).  Either way, it’s a risk the Yankees can make, and essentually they’re just exercising the option by adding the 2008 season at $7 million.  Again, a risk the Yanks can take.

So the Yankees pitching at this point looks like this:

• Starters: Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson
• Relievers: Mariano Rivera, Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Myers

I refuse to put anyone else in the list right now, because of Joe Torre’s insistance of relying on veterans he knows and not taking any risks on a rookie unless he’s clunked in at the back of the bullpen and trotting out when the game has already been decided.  One can point to Scott Proctor, but Proctor realisticly should have been a regular at least a season ago, as Proctor was blowing away AAA and the Yanks were giving extended looks to Al Leiter, Felix Rodriguez, Buddy Groom, Wayne Franklin, Alan Embree, and Mike Stanton.  With two rotation slots to fill and at least two (more likely three) bullpen guys needed, the pile of Yankee pitchers that have a least a shot of making the 25 man roster look like this:

• Jeff Karstens, Brian Bruney, Chris Britton, Humberto Sanchez, Darrell Rasner, T.J. Beam, Jose Veras, J. Brent Cox, Carl Pavano, Tyler Clippard, Philip Hughes

Mind you, those are people who the Yankees currently have under contract who pitched well enough in double or triple A (or even the majors) to put them on the team’s radar going into spring training.  Of course, the Yankees will invite a few crafty veterans to camp and probably sign one or two, but the bullpen is a crapshoot anyway - a lot of times, you have a few pitchers you’re secure with and the last few slots you give to guys who either don’t have any option years left or pitched well enough to earn a spot.

Starting pitching isn’t as easy.  The Yanks have three starting pitchers set in stone, so there are two more slots available.  Carl Pavano should have been in one, but I don’t think anyone knows what his status is and it’d be foolish to depend on him right now.  The hope would be that he’s healthy enough to go into spring training and show that he can pitch consistantly enough to not explode on the mound.  Karstens and Rasner made starts for the Yanks in September and neither pitched bad enough to be an embarassment.  Rasner, picked up off of waivers from Washington, is a former second round pick who has been pretty ordinary in the minors but pitched decent enough in Columbus this year to get a few innings while Randy Johnson was grabbing his back and the AL East was already in hand.  He’s not really overpowering and went the neopolitan route in his three starts - one good (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER against MIN), one OK (6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER against TOR) and one craptacular (2.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER against BAL).  Karstens, in contrast, is a Yankee minor league product (19th round pick out of Texas Tech) and 2 years younger (23 last season) than Rasner.  He started the 2006 season in Columbus and got hammered (0-5, 9.85 ERA) and got demoted to Trenton, where he pitched fine.  Recalled to Columbus, he put up a 5-0 record with a 1.85 ERA and was called up into the rotation when it was finally decided that the Sidney Ponson experiment had gone horribly wrong.  His starts were pretty consistant but too nothing to write home about.

Sanchez, Clippard, and Hughes are the wildcards.  The Yanks can’t realisticly look at Sanchez as a regular member of their rotation until they can be secure that he’s healthy enough to pitch every 5th day.  I’d be surprised to see him start the season in the Bronx; even if he pitches comparibly to others going for the rotation, I think the Yanks would still want to watch him and break down anythign he might be doing that might be causing the injury problems.  A spring training isn’t enough time - they’re going to want more time to look at him, so while he might not make it out of camp, there’s still a decent possibility that they could turn to him in May or June.  Clippard and Hughes looked damn impressive in AA, but both are very young (Clippard will be 22 next season, Hughes doesn’t turn 21 until late June) and should be treated with kid gloves.  Hughes they’re going to be very protective of - Clippard might get a shot, especially having pitched nearly 300 innings over the last two seasons.  He’s proven he can pitch in AA and might be given a shot, but probably not.

With the lack of “proven” major league starters and the Yankees being the Yankees, you know they’ll be active on the free agent market to acquire at least one starter.  At this point, I think two starters should be the goal here, depending on cost and value.  There aren’t really any clear cut “stars” on the market outside of Barry Zito now that Daisuke Matsuzaka is off the market (at least for a year, unless the Red Sox sign him - which I assume they’ll do).  Zito himself really isn’t a sure thing, and hasn’t showed “ace” material in years.  While I expect the Yankees to go hard after Zito (and having a good lefthanded starter to counter the lefthanded hitter advantage at the Stadium would be nice) he’s not going to be worth the money that he’s going to be asking for - you’re easily going to go over $75 million guaranteed for him.

Outside of that, your options are limited.  There are names out there, but they’re old names: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens (HA!).  There are guys who have shown top-tier stuff but have dealt with injuries that have either brought them down from that level or leave open the question of whether they’ll be able to pitch in 2007 and if so, how well: Jason Schmidt, Mark Mulder, Andy Pettitte, Brad Radke.  No one else stands out as someone who’ll be able to be turned to when put into a do-or-die situation.  The best of that group seems to be maybe a Ted Lilly, Randy Wolf, or Jeff Suppan.  Lilly (a former Yankee) and Wolf are both lefthanders, with Wolf coming off Tommy John surgery and Lilly a season removed from a horrid 10-11, 5.56 ERA year.  Both would probably come cheaper than Suppan, who is an underpowering pitcher who seems to still get people out and has the aura of a World Series ring on his finger.  However, neither are safe bets.  Jeff Weaver will be a thought to some teams, but if I were Weaver I’d stay in St. Louis, where Dave Duncan seems to have straightened him out after the Yankees destroyed his self-confidence.

In a market like this though, prices are going to be all over the place.  A team might be better off signing a Glavine to a one year deal than to commit $40 million to Suppan.  I’d like to see the Yanks give some lower tier guys a try, maybe take a look at Gil Meche or Jason Marquis.  Marquis, whose 2006 numbers look ugly, is a New York boy (born in Manhasset, grew up in Staten Island and Brooklyn) and those factors might give the Yanks a discount or at least some leverage in negociation with him.  Plus, take out two games Marquis was made a whipping boy in order to save the bullpen (June 21st against the White Sox - 5 IP & 13 ER, and July 18th against the Braves - 5 IP & 12 ER) and his ERA goes from 6.02 to 5.13.  Both are under 30 and are at a point in their careers where they could either turn the corner or flame out.

And then there’s the guy from Japan.  No, not Matsuzaka - Kei Igawa.  He’s doesn’t have the hype or the aura around him that Matsuzaka has (nor the numbers), but he did go 14-9 this season with a 2.97 ERA and tied for the Central League in strikeouts with 184 in 200 innings (against only 46 walks).  He’ll turn 28 in July, and likely won’t go for anywhere near what Matsuzaka’s bid was (then again, I didn’t think Matsuzaka would go for what Matsuzaka’s bid was) and won’t command that much guaranteed money in a contract.  Of course, the Yanks would only be able to sign him if they win the bidding rights for him, and I haven’t heard anything about him being an actual Yankee “target”.

So as it stands, the Yankees have two rotation slots available.  On the minor league level, they have three starters who are projected as being potentially good to very good major leaguers - Sanchez, Clippard, and Hughes.  With Randy Johnson finishing up his final year of his extension in 2007 (which he’ll be 44 at the end of) and Mike Mussina no spring chicken himself (38 this coming season, 39 next), the opportunities will be there for them when they come of age.  So signing a free agent or two for the rotation doesn’t necessarily block any of them from making the team, as long as Torre allows them to.

My recommendation?  Throw a decent (but not crazy) bid on Igawa, thinking of him as a 4th starter at best.  Talk with Meche and Marquis, throw the possibility out there early but don’t necessarily sign early, allowing them to be a backup plan but still showing interest as to keep the Yanks in the back of their mind when they’re hearing other offers.  Stand ground with Zito - see what they’re asking for, make an offer of your own, then if the bidding goes higher drop out.  Talk with Tom Glavine, see if he’ll do a one year deal (maybe with a mutual option for a second).  See if Jason Schmidt’s demands are halfway reasonable and see him as a potential top target.  See if Ted Lilly is pissed off about being traded away and see if his demands aren’t crazy, although they’re likely to be depending on who signs before him and for how much.  And definately see how Andy Pettitte is feeling and work out something with him (if he feels healthy) where he can pitch in pinstripes and still get to spend as much time with his family as he possibly can.

From a purely non-statistical standpoint, Pettitte is the best player the Yankees could come out of this free agent period with.  I really don’t know how healthy he is or even if he wants to come back to New York, but he’s a symbol of the World Series winning Yankee teams and would definately be a boost to the fanbase.  Plus, you know he can handle New York.

In the second half of this look at the Yankees offseason, I’ll approach the position player side of the roster.  Trust me, that one will be a lot shorter, as the Yanks are pretty much set there already.