The Buhner.com Blog

There’s another article in here which turned into something I want to spend more time on, but I still want to post my Hall of Fame ballot before voting numbers are released on the 9th (ballots were due on December 31st, but I’m not a voter, am I?)

The first approach to the ballot is to skim over the thing and just take off the names who you know you’re not going to vote for. They’re not really the “joke” options, just players who qualify to be listed by the rules for inclusion. For those who haven’t seen the ballot, this is the list:

Harold Baines
Albert Belle
Dante Bichette
Bert Blyleven
Bobby Bonilla
Scott Brosius
Jay Buhner
Ken Caminiti
Jose Canseco
Dave Concepcion
Eric Davis
Andre Dawson
Tony Fernandez
Steve Garvey
Rich Gossage
Tony Gwynn
Orel Hershiser
Tommy John
Wally Joyner
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Paul O’Neill
Dave Parker
Jim Rice
Cal Ripken Jr.
Bret Saberhagen
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Devon White
Bobby Witt

That’s 32 players, including 17 new names for this year. Last year, there were 29 names on the ballot, and 13 were removed for not picking up 5% of the vote last season (the missing player from the equation - Bruce Sutter, who actually got elected. More on that in that other article.) So on my first glance, I knocked off a good chunk:

Harold Baines
Albert Belle
Dante Bichette
Bert Blyleven
Bobby Bonilla
Scott Brosius
Jay Buhner
Ken Caminiti
Jose Canseco
Dave Concepcion
Eric Davis
Andre Dawson
Tony Fernandez
Steve Garvey
Rich Gossage
Tony Gwynn
Orel Hershiser
Tommy John
Wally Joyner
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Paul O’Neill
Dave Parker
Jim Rice
Cal Ripken Jr.
Bret Saberhagen
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Devon White
Bobby Witt

There are good players on that list, but players that I know aren’t Hall worthy. Brosius was one of my favorite Yankees during the late 90s “glory years”, Caminiti and Canseco won MVPs (albeit via questionable means), Davis might have been more of a consideration if it weren’t for his health (which is a great story of its own), Fernandez was one of the top offensive shortstops of the pre-supershorts era (trust me - you wanted Tony Fernandez on your fantasy team, even Scoresheet), etc. All of these guys (well, most of them) could probably argue the merits of being included, but most were either good or very good players (except maybe Devo White and Witt the Bobby - two guys who always seemed to have the potential but could never take that next step).

(And yeah, I know there’s likely one other name that should be included in that list… but it’s my list.)

The second pass requires a little more thought. These might be guys that I thought should be knocked off the list on first pass but have done well in voting or have been talked up a decent amount, so I second guess myself and have to do some research. Kind of the “I know I’m right - just reconfirm for me” list.

Harold Baines
Albert Belle
Bert Blyleven
Jay Buhner
Dave Concepcion
Andre Dawson
Steve Garvey
Rich Gossage
Tony Gwynn
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Jim Rice
Cal Ripken Jr.
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell

While Parker and Concepcion are 70s guys who I didn’t get to see play that often (at least in their prime), neither really did enough to be considered a “top player”. Parker was on that route until he ran into some “personal issues”, but managed to get his career back on track. He had a very good career, but just not enough. Concepcion is lost on me. He was good defensively and hit well enough in his prime to be a good offensive shortstop (back when shortstops were almost entirely all field, no hit types), but he never stood out as being on of the best of all time. He’s someone whose contention is strongly based on comparison to others already in the Hall and by the team that he played for, but standing alone solely on his merits, he’s not good enough.

Then there’s Jack Morris. Morris has gotten a frightening amount of support lately (41% last year) for a guy whose highest finish in Cy Young voting has been third. We’re talking the best players in baseball history - Morris hasn’t been the second best pitcher in his league. Morris still gets attention for three reasons - his ginormous win total (254, averaging 16 a season), three World Series rings, and game seven of the 1991 World Series. It was a hell of a game - Morris throws a ten inning complete game shutout for the victory - but people have that locked in as the type of pitcher that he was. Morris only spent one season with Minnesota (just to give you an idea of how burned in that image of Morris is - I almost always see him in a Twins uni) before he went to Toronto, who saw his game 7 performance and gave him a big money three year deal. He won 21 games that season, then tanked the following year and was released. Morris’ wins came as a result of his longevity (18 seasons), health (he started at least 20 games in all but his first two seasons), stamina (Morris had 175 complete games and pitched at least 235 innings in 11 of his seasons), and run support (Morris almost always played for strong offensive teams). Put Morris on average teams and he becomes an average pitcher who just pitched for a long time. Sure, Don Sutton did that and he got in, but he did it better and longer. No.

Harold Baines is kind of like a hitter’s version of Jack Morris. He played for a long time (thanks to the DH) and gave solid performances each time out. He was definitely a nice player to have in your lineup, but he was never a “strike fear” type of guy, didn’t bring anything to the table defensively, and while he probably deserves to go into the White Sox Hall of Fame (if he hasn’t already) he’s not a MLB HoF guy.

Now, let’s get rid of the popular picks from voters that I wouldn’t vote for. These are guys who seem to have a decent shot or get a lot of support that I might have waffled on in the past, but wouldn’t get my vote - although they might get in.

Albert Belle
Bert Blyleven
Jay Buhner
Andre Dawson
Steve Garvey
Rich Gossage
Tony Gwynn
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Jim Rice
Cal Ripken Jr.
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell

Andre Dawson got 61% last year, and a lot of serious discussion. Dawson won an MVP in 1987 (on a last place team no less) and had a long and productive career. But he, like Baines, wasn’t particularly dominant and was generally a nice player to have on the team but not necessarily one of the best in the league. Dawson has a few pluses over Baines (gold gloves, MVP, speed at one time) but he’s a borderline guy, and if you have to think that hard whether or not he deserves to be in, he probably doesn’t.

Lee Smith (45% last year) closed a lot of games, and got a lot of saves. But if Lee Smith were on the SAT, Lee Smith : Jack Morris. It seems a shame that someone who was the all time saves leader until this past season should get shut out of the Hall, but Smith was rarely the best closer in his league, despite being the one who got the most saves. And when you can’t convincingly say you were the best at your position, especially at one so difficult to justify Hall inclusion for like the closer (shut up, Bruce Sutter), Lee’s not worth the vote.

Steve Garvey I’m still putting up here despite his vote totals going steadily down (actually, last year he got a surge of votes, but nothing like his early totals). Garvey was more impressive when he first became eligible in 1993. He was a great hitter, all star, multiple gold gloves, MVP winner, and generally well liked. But as the years went on and the offensive explosion took place, Garvey’s numbers seemed less impressive (indeed, Garvey’s two biggest vote drops came in the 1999 and 2002 elections, which followed Mark McGwire’s and Barry Bonds’ home run record setting seasons.) Garvey never played in a hitter’s park (Garvey’s career numbers using B-R’s “neutralized stats” give Garvey a .312 career BA and 301 HRs) and if he stayed at third base instead of first, maybe he’s in today.

Yes, Jim Rice is there too. Yeah, there’s a decent argument for Rice, but I still can’t justify it. His numbers were helped greatly by playing in Boston, he was a questionable fielder, and he wasn’t much for longevity (at least HoF caliber longevity - 11 very good seasons). Again, it goes back to whether you need to talk yourself into voting for him. I’m on the fence, and because of that fact, it’s a no.

We’re down to 10, and by that reasoning we could put the rest on and send it in. But while I may feel strongly about some overlooked people, I’m still knocking them off.

Albert Belle
Bert Blyleven
Jay Buhner
Rich Gossage
Tony Gwynn
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Cal Ripken Jr.
Alan Trammell

Mattingly and Murphy are similar - both were very good in their prime, both played for (usually) bad teams, and both had sudden dropoffs in their careers. Mattingly’s was more explainable - he had a back injury that bothered him through most of the remainder of his career. Mattingly had a stance that would put decent pressure on the back; through the second half of his career, he was constantly adjusting it. While he was able to be a very capable hitter again, he lost his power and became a light hitting first baseman. Murphy’s was more unusual - without injury or warning, Murphy came off of one of the best seasons of his career (even better statistically than his back to back MVP seasons) to see his home run total cut nearly in half and his batting average drop by nearly 70 points. It wasn’t an age issue (Murphy was 32 that season), injuries (Murphy played in 156 games that season), or even the team around him (Murphy’s Braves teams had always been… well, poor), he just saw his level of play decrease, and never turned it around. While both are good people and I pushed Mattingly’s case a few years back when Kirby Puckett was inducted on the first ballot, they’re not on mine this year.

Alan Trammell is someone who I’ve voted for in the past, but I’m reconsidering. Trammell was one of the better hitting shortstops of his time, at least depending on the season. He’s bat .314, then bat .258. One season he’s one of the top hitting shortstops in the game, the next he’s just there. Trammell was good defensively and won gold gloves early in his career before being overshadowed by the flashier shortstops, but while his longevity and loyality make him one for the Tigers Hall, he’s not a Baseball HoF guy.

Seven. Each of whom I want to address.

• Tony Gwynn - It’s easy to overlook how good of a hitter Tony Gwynn was because he wasn’t a home run guy and never won an MVP. But while most hitters strive for .300, Gwynn started his career batting .289 (in 54 games his rookie season) then never hit below .300 again. He had a career batting average of .338, and batted over .350 seven times, including the 1994 strike shortened season where he hit .394 playing half his games in the huge pitcher’s park in San Diego. Gwynn’s game was ideal for longevity; even when other aspects of his game diminished with age (Gwynn’s size and age killed his speed; he stole over 25 bases four of his first five seasons) his eye never left him. Rarely overwhelmed at the plate (40 strikeouts was his highest total in a season), his top nine closest comparable hitters are all in the Hall (although none compare that closely). I think it’s safe to say that Gwynn was the best pure hitter that baseball has seen in the last 25 years (sorry Wade Boggs.) Of all the candidates available this year, he’s the most obvious candidate for enshrinement. Definitely on my ballot.
• Cal Ripken Jr. - The other “gimmie” on the ballot, Ripken has all the tools for automatic inclusion - popularity (19 straight all star game appearances), a legendary record (the consecutive games mark), higher than normal stats at his position (numbers like his from a shortstop at that time were just not seen), a championship ring (1983), an MVP award (two - 1983 and 1991), a milestone number (more than 3000 career hits), and glowing memories that still last in voters eyes. Ripken’s final season saw his numbers drop to mediocre levels, but he was still voted to the All Star team by the fans at third base (where Cal had played near the end of his career). Starting shortstop Alex Rodriguez, in a display of respect, shifted to third base when the team went out to start the game, putting Ripken in his traditional shortstop spot. Ripken then homered in his first at-bat of the game, and would end up winning the All-Star Game MVP. However it was Ripken’s chase of the “streak” in 1995 that is often credited with “saving” baseball coming off of the labor disputes the previous season that would lead to the cancellation of the 1994 World Series. Ripken’s stats won’t look as good years from now and don’t even hold up that well (Ripken only had two seasons with a OPS+ in triple digits in the second half of his career) on a season by season level, but of course his longevity is going to help his total numbers. The thing about Ripken’s second half numbers though is a nitpick (and arguably a result of his chase for the streak) and he has too many other things going for him to not be voted in. However, he’s a very good example of how a player could (in theory) see his votes drop over years because what seems impressive now may not seem so impressive ten seasons from now. I think if Ripken hadn’t played as long as he did and if he wasn’t as popular as he was (and still is), his election wouldn’t be as clear cut as it will be this season, and there’s a decent likelihood that he wouldn’t make it as each season passed. He still gets my vote though.
• Bert Blyleven - There’s going to be a principle in place that I’ll talk about in the other article regarding handcuffs, but Blyleven and Jack Morris should be connected - in that any vote that gets placed for Jack Morris should automatically generate a vote for Blyleven. While Morris was helped by playing for winning teams almost his entire career, Blyleven generally pitched for losing teams through the course of his career. Even when pitching for a winning team (the 1977 Texas Rangers for example) Blyleven seemed to struggle for victories. Despite finishing 94-68, Blyleven went 14-12 for the Rangers that season, despite finishing second in the league that season in ERA, first in WHIP, 7th in strikeouts, and second in shutouts (with five). In comparison, Frank Tanana - who won the ERA title that season in the AL - went 15-9 for a California Angels team that went 74-88. Tanana’s ERA+ was two points higher than Blyleven’s. Blyleven would finish in his league’s top ten in ERA ten times in his career, and currently ranks fifth in career strikeouts. Using B-R’s “neutralize stats” function to put pitchers in neutral stadiums with neutral run support (explained here), Blyleven wins 324 games, and as a result likely sits in the Hall already. I can somewhat understand why someone wouldn’t vote for him, but I would - he’s on my ballot.
• Rich Gossage - I swear I’ve gone on about this in this blog (just search, it might be int here), but it’s hard to get a handle on how good of a closer Gossage was when he was in a closing role (Gossage worked middle relief or even as a starter for half of his career). Gossage’s ERA+ the years that he closed: 212, 246, 180, 156, 173, 465, 180, 173, 123, 193, 82. Gossage was a nine time All Star - a feat more impressive when you consider that pitchers are selected by the manager of the All-Star team and not the fans. Only six pitchers have been selected to more All Star teams. Gossage’s candidacy is hurt by his desire to lengthen his career, working in middle relief (and even mop up roles) until he was 43 years old, and just the same as the recent memory of Ripken helps him, the recent memory that sportswriters have of Gossage is him mopping up after Dave Fleming or Roger Salkeld got bombed. I’ll go into more with Gossage in my other article, but I’d vote the guy in.
• Albert Belle & Mark McGwire - I was going to address them separately, but I keep using each one to reference the other, so I’ll put the two of them together. Completely blind, not knowing any history or background and just seeing the two of them as numbers on a page, I’m on the fence with both of them - Belle because of the length of his career, and McGwire because of the swing in his statistics (very very good or mediocre at best). The further I’d look at them, I’d probably lean more towards giving a pass towards Belle, who career ended due to injury and outside of his first two partial seasons, was an offensive monster. McGwire, in contrast, had some very very good seasons (and holds records for those seasons) but also had some bat ones (McGwire broke 100 hits in only 8 of his 16 seasons), and could be safely considered a one dimensional player. Of course, it’s not as easy as that. Belle and McGwire both have their issues surrounding them - Belle was caught corking his bat and was suspended for doing that, and never was the most popular player in the league with fans, reporters, or trick-or-treaters. The hip condition that ended his career is sometimes linked to steroid abuse, however Belle has never been linked to any steroid or questionable supplement connection. McGwire’s story has been beaten to death - an admitted user of a supplement that was later banned by baseball (and had already been banned by the NFL and the IOC at the time that McGwire was using it), McGwire’s numbers saw a sharp increase after the age of 30 - not exactly the time a player should be getting better. Bill Simmons, a writer who normally entertains me, pretty much looks like an ass “defending” McGwire’s inclusion into the hall (it’s really hard to tell from the article) and when you’re already on the fence with someone, that’s plenty to knock you in one direction. I don’t think either belong in the Hall, but if I really had a vote I’d vote for Belle just because I think that a good percentage of voters aren’t really giving him a fair shake - he was a better hitter than McGwire during his entire career, both were as “intimidating” when facing them at the plate (one of the points Simmons uses for McGwire), and Belle has a lot more hearsay and speculation to discredit his numbers than actual fact (the only thing he’s been caught with was the corked bat, which it has been argued poses little or no benefit to a hitter). So on my “ballot”, yes on Belle and no on McGwire.
• Jay Buhner - If I had my ballot, I’d vote for him. Put in the Belle column for “voting for him despite knowing he really doesn’t belong there”. As you could guess from the site, I’ve been a fan for a long time, and it’ll be sad when Jay gets eliminated after this year because it’s extremely unlikely that Bone is going to get the required 5%. As I said with people earlier in this list, Buhner qualifies as an ideal “team Hall of Fame” guy, but not a Baseball Hall of Fame guy. Indeed, Buhner’s jersey number was reportedly going to be the first one the team retired shortly after his retirement (to be done at Jay Buhner Day at Safeco in 2002) but Buhner felt that Ken Griffey Jr’s should be retired before his is. Whether true or not (I swear I read it somewhere), Buhner’s definitely a Mariner Hall of Famer, and would get my vote every year I could vote for him.

Not too quick or dirty, was it? I tried - oh well, at least I managed to get it done before the results get announced tomorrow.