The Buhner.com Blog

Gwynn and Ripken are going to make it. No question.

Gossage I think will. I think the Sutter inclusion will give him enough momentum.

I think Rice will get damn close, partially because of how close he was last year, partially because his time is running out soon, and partially because some voters will feel it as an obligation to vote for Rice because he’s not McGwire, and ends up being more of a “message” vote. I don’t think he gets in though, because even with those things that I mentioned, a strong class works against Rice. Borderline candidates get more votes when Hall voters don’t have anyone who stands out and they need someone to vote for. That’s not the case this year.

Dawson doesn’t make it, and I really don’t see it happening. His numbers are going to look weaker and weaker as time goes on.

Blyleven doesn’t make it either. I don’t think he’ll see a sharp drop, but I also don’t see him improving much right now. He had 53% last year - he needs a hell of a lot more votes that he’s not likely to get. Jack Morris will probably end up getting almost as many votes as Blyleven, which shows you what we’re dealing with.

McGwire’s not getting in, but this year’s balloting is going to mean absolutely nothing when trying to figure out how many votes he’ll get for next year. I think he’s going to get a hell of a lot more votes than people think he’s going to get, and it’s going to piss a lot of people off. I think there’s a lot of voters who are voting for him on principle, and those votes will disappear once they see how close McGwire gets to induction. It’ll greatly outnumber the amount of votes that McGwire would have gotten from the “I’ll vote for him, but he doesn’t deserve a first-year-on-the-ballot-vote” crowd.

Of the non-McGwire newcomers, those with the best chance to stick around to the next ballot are Harold Baines (who will, despite being the only newcomer left off the press release), Saberhagen, O’Neill, and maybe Canseco.

Albert Belle stands a good chance of falling off the ballot, which is a damn shame. He barely stayed on last year, and with him being in the news in a negative light recently, there’s going to be more than a few people who voted for him in the past that won’t vote for him this year.

If I’m to guess who drops off this years ballot for next year, it’ll be Belle, Caminiti, Witt, Joyner, Brosius, Fernandez, Bonilla, Bichette, Buhner, Davis, White, Canseco, and O’Neill. Oh, and Steve Garvey, who is in his last year of eligibility.

As for the “others”, the 12 ESPN.com baseball writers who have real-life HoF votes shooed-in Gwynn and Ripken (12 for 12), and mainly agreed on Gossage (11 for 12), Dawson and Rice (10 for 12). Jack Morris actually got more votes (8) than Blyleven (7), with all seven voters for Blyleven also voting for Morris, with Buster Olney¹ being the difference. Four voted for McGwire (Olney, Jim Caple², Jayson Stark, and Peter Gammons), three for Trammell (Caple, Phil Rogers, and Tim Kurkjian), and seven others getting one vote each (Baines, Belle, Concepcion, Garvey, Murphy, Parker, and Lee Smith).

184,000+ ESPN.com voters cast votes, and using the 75% HoF method of inclusion, only Ripken and Gwynn get in (something that isn’t unthinkable and wouldn’t surprise me much.) Only Andre Dawson got more than half of the votes outside of those two, although only ten (11 counting Garvey) fall off the “public”’s ballot:

83.0% Cal Ripken, Jr.
81.6% Tony Gwynn
54.6% Andre Dawson
45.7% Rich Gossage
43.3% Lee Smith
42.4% Jim Rice
39.6% Bert Blyleven
37.1% Don Mattingly
31.4% Tommy John
30.2% Mark McGwire
26.7% Dale Murphy
24.9% Jack Morris
23.0% Orel Hershiser
19.0% Dave Parker
15.6% Steve Garvey
14.9% Alan Trammell
13.5% Bret Saberhagen
9.7% Harold Baines
9.0% Dave Concepcion
7.8% Paul O’Neill
6.6% Albert Belle
6.1% Jose Canseco
4.5% Ken Caminiti
3.3% Eric Davis
3.2% Jay Buhner
3.1% Wally Joyner
2.6% Scott Brosius
2.5% Devon White
2.4% Tony Fernandez
2.3% Bobby Witt
2.2% Bobby Bonilla
2.1% Dante Bichette

Total Votes: 184,042

Of course, web polls are what they are, and allow for those who just want to vote for their favorite to just pick one person and leave everyone else off, or allow for the “joke votes” (no offense Bobby Witt). As a gentle reminder of the “voting public” that takes these polls, a seperate poll (61,510 votes cast) saw more people say that they would vote for McGwire on the first ballot than Barry Bonds, if Bonds were eligible today (46.3% to 44.9%). That just gives you an idea of how unpopular Bonds is, who has clearly superior numbers to McGwire both currently and in the pre-questionable era.

Man, it’s going to get interesting in the next couple of years.

¹Buster Olney thinks yes for Morris, no for Blyleven. Buster Olney has also published articles about how he thinks Tony Gwynn should be in the Hall of Fame and several articles using vague rumors to break stories that may or moy not happen, such as how Boston may have made a huge bid to secure the services of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Buster Olney also throws tridents. Buster Olney loves lamp.

²Jim Caple has a Hall of Fame vote? Caple hasn’t written anything in the last several years that hasn’t been either a sad attempt at humor or part of his “I hate the Yankeez!” shtick. He comes off like a 50 year old guy trying to be hip and “wacky”. Hell, the average Jim Caple Page 2 column? Find a current trend (usually baseball related) that has been beaten to death, and Caple exposes further examples of it to the extreme with “comic” results (the Giants are going to sign Hoyt Wilhelm. And he’s DEAD! AHAHAHAHAHAHA!) Rip the Yankees. Send it in, prepare Hall of Fame ballot. Cripes, Bill Simmons at least is somewhat entertaining; give him a ballot if you want a Page 2 guy voting. Or better yet, give that ballot to Keith Law.