Deadline Deals: Brewers Get Linebrink, hosed
by Tom on Jul.26, 2007, under Baseball
Milwaukee receives:
Padres receives:
RHP Will Inman
LHP Steve Garrison
LHP Joe Thatcher
Thoughts: Linebrink was a nobody until the Padres got him off waivers from the Astros and made him a full time reliever. He was probably one of the top setup men in baseball for a few years until I drafted him last year in my Scoresheet league. He was pulling an ERA around 2 and a WHIP around 1 while striking out a guy an inning, but last year started giving up more hits (raising his ERA in the process) and this season has seen his strikeouts go down and his ERA push 4.
Inman was impressive as hell last season in A-ball (leading the league in Ks) and was tearing up A-ball again this year but then struggled in AA. He’s still only 20. Thatcher’s 25 and was pitching in the Frontier League two seasons ago but has been scary this season in AA (0.55 ERA in 16.1 innings with 20 Ks against 2 BB) and AAA (2.08 ERA in 21.2 innings with 33 Ks against 7 BB), and will take Linebrink’s spot on the Padres 25-man roster. Garrison’s 20 years old as well, but hasn’t been that impressive in A-ball (8-4, 3.44 ERA, 6.36 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 in 20 starts), but he’s lefthanded dammit.
Overall, I like Doug Melvin and all, but I think San Diego made out like bandits here. Not necessarily a Krivsky-level blindside, but I think Linebrink has something going on with either his mechanics or an injury that’s going to keep him from being the player he was in 2004 and 2005 that the Brewers need him to be for this deal to pay off for them, especially if Inman ends up shaking off his issues in AA.
July 29th, 2007 on 9:24 am
Not necessarily.
Word is that Liney will net the Brewers a first and perhaps a third -round draft pick if (oh, please, WHEN) he leaves in the off-season. For a team that has a glut of young pitching in the higher levels of the minors, they can afford to try it again. If they let Coco walk too (and judging by what I’ve seen today, they damn well oughta), they’re gonna be rolling in high-level compensation picks like a sorority party with Smirnoff Ice.
I would have like to have seen Thatcher come up and wrest Brian Shouse’s fatcat lefty-picking spot away from him, but I can live with losing him.
I freaked a little about Inman at first too, but the hard truth is this: He doesn’t have a MLB-worthy fastball. That started becoming glaringly apparent in AA. He’s topping in the high-80’s. When AA is punting you around, “a-Prospect” status becomes an arguable fact. Can’t comment on Harrison.
As for Liney’s mechanics, Maddux can sort it out. I think change-of-scenery alone will be of benefit. I could well be wrong on this,but I think he’s worth taking the chance on. Now granted, I would have much rather traded Brad Nelson for Dan Wheeler, as the Rays have in essence done…
July 30th, 2007 on 11:50 am
Linebrink, at best, would net the Brewers two first round draft picks, if everything falls into place for them. Elias Sports Bureau has to list him as a “Type A” free agent (meaning he’s in the top 20% of all relievers, free agent or not, using the magical formula Elias uses), someone has to sign him away, and most importantly the Brewers have to offer him salary arbitration, which Linebrink has to refuse. That’s the key - if Linebrink stinks it up this year and becomes Mel Rojas or something, the Brewers run the risk of offering him arbitration and Linebrink taking the guaranteed one year deal (which can’t be much less than his 2007 salary - I don’t remember the exact percentage in the CBA though) instead of going out on the market. Then the Brewers not only get zero draft picks, they get a $2 million middle reliever still “working on his stuff”.
In reality, if Linebrink went the Rojas route, the Brewers wouldn’t offer him arbitration. It’s if he manages to have a solid enough season to not be horrible but still not someone you’d want to make a long term investment in (say, pitching relatively well but getting shelled in a handful of outings to put his ERA in the 4.50 range). Then it’s a game of chicken - would Linebrink accept the arbitration offer (he has a period of a few weeks that actually flows over into FA) or would he get a free agent deal worth signing? I guess it’s a safe offer of arbi though - I wouldn’t think Linebrink would command that much in arbi (maybe a little over $2 million) and it’s a minimal investment for one season for someone who could hypothetically turn it around with enough time with his new pitching coach.
Of course you don’t trade a player (specificly prospects) to get draft picks; that’s just going backwards. And while middle relief isn’t glamorous, it’s one of the quickest methods of giving games away. Maddux is only going to be able to do as much as Linebrink wants to or is able to do, and remember that Linebrink started his slide while under the watchful eye of Bud Black in San Diego. To stress again, the things that concern me with Linebrink are his elevated home run totals (9 this season already, tying a career high) and his strikeouts (8.53 K/9 during 2004-2006, 5.17 K/9 during 2007). Half the home runs came in San Diego, so it’s not like it’s a home/road thing.
I understand that Inman has been getting hit in AA, but you still have to remember that he just turned 20 in February. While he doesn’t have that scorching fastball, he’s still got the strikeouts in AA (more than a strikeout per inning), so whatever was fooling A-ball is still fooling a percentage of AA ball as well, it’s just that AA’s more mature pitchers are taking the mistakes and capitalizing on them more. Remember that AA is pretty much AAA now, with AAA turning into the place to stick your guys in their late 20s, your extra veteran catcher, and the Jack Custs of the world.
Just checked splits for this season for Inman:
June: 1-3, 9.18 ERA, 16.2 IP, 19 H, 3 HR, 8 BB, 18 K
July: 0-2, 2.74 ERA, 23.0 IP, 19 H, 4 HR, 8 BB, 24 K
So he might be figuring it out - there are bound to be growing pains with any jump of level, and Inman might be straightening himself out.
I don’t think you can write him off as a prospect, although everyone and their cousin was throwing up warning flags about Inman since he didn’t have the mid 90s fastball and that when you’re relying more on your control, there’s that much less room for error. I’m not saying that they shouldn’t have traded Inman - I’m just saying that they should have gotten something more for him.