It was easy as a Yankee fan growing up with the New York tabloids to hate George Steinbrenner. Even as a grade schooler, I was critical of moves that the Yankees made, such as allowing Reggie Jackson to leave as a free agent, and later the departures of Rich “Goose” Gossage (via free agency) and Graig Nettles (via trade, allegedly as a result of negative comments Nettles made about Steinbrenner in his memoir). But it was his actions towards Dave Winfield that made me despise the man.

Winfield and Steinbrenner always seem to have some kind of friction, which I never understood as a grade schooler. To me, Dave Winfield was the ideal player; talented and athletic, but humble and friendly. Steinbrenner clashed with Winfield though, going so far as to hire Howard Spira to dig up dirt on Winfield to tarnish his image. Winfield would eventually be traded (for Mike Witt of all people) and would give several more productive seasons (and receive a World Series ring in return in 1992), while Steinbrenner would be banned for life* from baseball for his dealings with Spira.

When I got older though, I realized why Steinbrenner acted this way (well, some of it) and learned to appreciate what he did for the Yankees more. The time away from baseball did the Yankees a world of good; Steinbrenner’s departure opened the door for Gene Michael to build the team as general manager without interference from Steinbrenner. Michael was a baseball guy — an excellent scout and judge of talent. Michael and later Bob Watson would build what would become the “Yankee Dynasty”, drafting and signing players such as Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Bernie Williams, and trading for players like Tino Martinez, Paul O’Neill and Scott Brosius. That — not the buying of free agents — is what made the Yankees a dominant team in the 90s. When Steinbrenner was reinstated after a few years, he took a less “hands-on” approach — allowing professional baseball people like Michael and Watson do what they did best — while at the same time keeping the high expectations in place that had been there before. From 1987 to 1990, the Yankees changed managers five times, almost always as a direct result of Steinbrenner. In the twenty years since, the Yankees have only changed managers three times.

As someone who went to a lot of Yankees games during that time, I can tell you that late 80s/early 90s Yankee teams that were some of the worst in Yankee history were a direct result of Steinbrenner’s actions. I can also say that the two rings the Yankees brought home in 1977 and 1978 and the late 90s dynasty likely wouldn’t have happened without him either. When Steinbrenner’s group purchased the Yankees in 1973, the Yankees were a second-tier franchise, struggling to make a .500 record and playing in a crumbling stadium. In three years, the Yankees were back in the World Series.

It’s easy to criticize the Yankees spending, but it’s also easy to forget how easily Steinbrenner could have maintained a “regular” payroll and pocketed the rest of the money. Steinbrenner spent profits to make his product better. Isn’t that what you want from an owner?

You’ll be missed, Mr. Steinbrenner.

So apparently Alex Rodriguez has a torn labrum in his hip, which will either put him out for 10 weeks (according to his brother), 4 months (if the Yankees feel he needs surgery), or not at all (the initial approach the Yanks are taking.)

admission that he took steroids

probably

WINNER: Orioles, but for the wrong reasons.

RHP Scott Linebrink

Padres receives:

RHP Will Inman
LHP Steve Garrison
LHP Joe Thatcher

Thoughts: Linebrink was a nobody until the Padres got him off waivers from the Astros and made him a full time reliever. He was probably one of the top setup men in baseball for a few years until I drafted him last year in my Scoresheet league. He was pulling an ERA around 2 and a WHIP around 1 while striking out a guy an inning, but last year started giving up more hits (raising his ERA in the process) and this season has seen his strikeouts go down and his ERA push 4.

Inman was impressive as hell last season in A-ball (leading the league in Ks) and was tearing up A-ball again this year but then struggled in AA. He’s still only 20. Thatcher’s 25 and was pitching in the Frontier League two seasons ago but has been scary this season in AA (0.55 ERA in 16.1 innings with 20 Ks against 2 BB) and AAA (2.08 ERA in 21.2 innings with 33 Ks against 7 BB), and will take Linebrink’s spot on the Padres 25-man roster. Garrison’s 20 years old as well, but hasn’t been that impressive in A-ball (8–4, 3.44 ERA, 6.36 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 in 20 starts), but he’s lefthanded dammit.

Overall, I like Doug Melvin and all, but I think San Diego made out like bandits here. Not necessarily a Krivsky-level blindside, but I think Linebrink has something going on with either his mechanics or an injury that’s going to keep him from being the player he was in 2004 and 2005 that the Brewers need him to be for this deal to pay off for them, especially if Inman ends up shaking off his issues in AA.

Don’t hop on bandwagon yet

Because as you know, New York fans are quite fickle with their bandwagons. Sorry, I know it’s just the title.

Believe it or not,

I’m assuming not.

even after as decisive a win as you could get,

21–4 is very decisive. 22–4 is probably more decisive. 912–0 would probably be much more decisive.

there still are questions. For instance: How good, really, are the Yankees?

51–46, 7.5 games back of first place Boston; therefore the 2nd best team in the American League. They also have the 10th best record in baseball, so I’ll say “one of the top ten teams in baseball.”

And is Shelley Duncan truly a major-league power hitter?

He is after four games. I’d be willing to bet he doesn’t keep up this pace, and by his minor league statistics I’d say that he’d have trouble hitting .250 in the majors, meaning he might be a major league regular for some team — if that team were in Mexico.

We will get a better answer to the latter when he faces a major-league team.

OOOOOOOH DISSIN’ THE D-RAYS.

But maybe the most difficult and pertinent question at the moment is this: Who got hit harder this weekend, Tampa Bay pitching or the Yankees teammates Duncan kept high-fiving?

Main Entry: dif-fi-cult
Function: adjective
Etymology: Middle English, back-formation from difficulty
1 : hard to do, make, or carry out : ARDUOUS <a difficult climb>
2 a : hard to deal with, manage, or overcome <a difficult child> b : hard to understand : PUZZLING <difficult reading>

Main Entry: per-ti-nent
Function: adjective
Etymology: Middle English, from Anglo-French, from Latin pertinent-, pertinens, present participle of pertinEre
: having a clear decisive relevance to the matter in hand

Just checking. Oh, and I know it’s a difficult question and all, but since Shelley’s high-fives didn’t knock eight of his teammates out of Yankee Stadium, I’ll lean towards the Tampa pitching answer.

Can he ever do this again?

Hit three home runs in four games? I don’t think it’s out of the qu…

Who knows?

Oh. That was one of those rhetorical questions.

But one thing nobody can question is why people at Yankee Stadium sang “Shel-lee Dun-can” and gave him a standing ovation when he grounded to first in the seventh.

Really? I think if you were going to your first baseball game and saw this Shelley Duncan, playing for the home team, ground out to first and the crowd stood and cheered him, you might be a bit confused. Especially if you knew New York fans.

It isn’t because of what he did this weekend but because of how hard he climbed to get here.

I can pretty much guarantee that 90% of that Yankee crowd didn’t know who the hell Shelley Duncan was before Friday. Of that remaining 10%, I’m pretty sure you can take a fraction of that who know Shelley Duncan’s level of determination when it comes to his play.

David Shelley Duncan is no kid.

There are very few children playing major league baseball.

He is about two months shy of his 28th birthday.

Which makes him the 6th youngest player on the Yankees current 25-man roster. In context, I guess you could say he is a “kid”.

Despite having grown up in a big-league family — dad Dave, a former catcher, is the pitching coach for the world champion Cardinals and brother Chris plays leftfield for the Cardinals — Shelley played through college and 6� years in the minors without a sniff of the majors until Friday. He had come up empty an awful lot before he came up so big.

Yet no one weeps for Ozzie Canseco.

“You learn how to play the game right. You also deal with a lot of failures,” said Duncan, who never hit higher than .267 before this season. “I believe there is no failure unless you don’t learn from it. So I try to learn any time I screw up or go through a hard time.”

Good message. Kids, write that down.

In other words, he spent the time and took the tough lessons that nobody has taught most of the Devil Rays, who ought to be in the minor leagues.

Oh lord. Kids, if you still have that pencil in hand, also write down “suck badly in the minors for several years, so that you can learn tough lessons.”

Not to take anything away from the Yankees’ laugher or Duncan’s day, but it’s hard to tell how seriously to take those events because Tampa Bay is one of the great embarrassments in baseball.

Who as recently as two months ago had the same record as the New York Yankees, just with a payroll of $165 million less. While the Devil Rays are by no means a good team, they were three games behind the Yanks on June 24th, with a record of 33–40. They’ve gone 5–20 since. coolstandings.com has them on pace for a 61–101 record this season, which isn’t good, but isn’t the 1899 Cleveland Spiders or anything.

Not only can’t the Devil Rays pitch a lick,

Admittedly their worst feature as a team. Outside of their top two starting pitchers and their closer, they’ve got one player on their roster with an ERA under 5.

they don’t play smart and they don’t play pretty.

“Style points” are the new OPS. I may have stolen Bill James’ thunder on that one, so if I disappear suddenly, you know the Saberassassins have gotten me.

Their signature isn’t just James Shields giving up 10 runs in 3 1/3 innings

Shields, prior to that game, was 8–5 with a 3.91 ERA in 20 starts, striking out 120 in 142.2 innings and walking only 21. In the context of the D-Rays’ pitching staff, it’d be like pointing out how bad the ’88 Orioles sucked by noting Cal Ripken’s 0–5 game. It’d also lead the Yankees in strikeouts and be the third lowest ERA in the Yankees starting rotation, better than Andy Pettitte or Mike Mussina.

or Casey Fossum getting torched for hit after hit or Tampa Bay throwing 216 pitches in eight innings. It’s Jonny Gomes looking at a called third strike with two runners on and one out, and having a fly ball clank off his glove.

Gomes is batting .277/.337/.497 since being called back up from the minors and playing himself back into a starting role. He’s apparently doing something right. His fielding does leave a bit to be desired, though.

It’s throwing errors and fielding errors. It’s Akinori Iwamura hitting a weak groundout on the first pitch when Pettitte was struggling.

Struggling with what — control? If he’s struggling in getting people out, then the first pitch is a fine opportunity to jump all over a pitcher before he’s able to correct himself. Oh, upon further examination, Pettitte had walked one and struck out six at this point. Pettitte was giving up hits, not walking runners, and Iwamura was the 7th batter in the inning, meaning that “taking the first few pitches”, which might work in Little League, isn’t the approach a player should have necessarily taken in this case. Pettitte didn’t lose his control, he just didn’t have his best stuff, and when a veteran pitcher doesn’t have his best stuff it’s best to jump on him before he straightens himself out.

And Iwamura’s eight seasons as a Yakult Swallow have apparently been eliminated by his five months as a Devil Ray, infecting him with the disease that makes Devil Ray players poor.

The Devil Rays, and all big– league clubs, need Shelley Duncans who take their lumps and learn how to play.

Iwamura gets ripped for grounding out on the first pitch of his at-bat. He can take a lesson from Duncan, who struck out 140 times in his last full season and already has four strikeouts in 12 at-bats — that’s one every three times up to the plate.

Maybe he isn’t the next Shane Spencer, who made a niche and name for himself with a torrid 1998 homer streak.

By “streak” he means “twice that season he hit home runs in back-to-back games.” Torrid streak would have been good enough there, as Spencer turned in a handful of monster games combined with a small sample size (thanks, Torrebot) to put together a .373/.411/.910 line in 73 plate appearences, hitting 10 home runs over that span. It gave Spencer a seven year major league career, mostly with the Yankees who could afford to platoon him and use him as a 4th outfielder.

The only reason Duncan was called up from Scranton was so slumping DH/outfielder Johnny Damon could get a couple of days off.

No, he was called up because Kevin Thompson, who the Yankees were using as their 5th outfielder, wasn’t playing that well and the team wanted to see what Duncan would do with a few at-bats, since Duncan was Scranton’s best hitter. Those are the types of moves that non-Yankee teams try in order to discover talent or spark the offense and see if that AAAA player is actually capable of playing in the majors. Oakland did it with Jack Cust this season.

The shocking thing was that Torrebot managed to actually play Duncan when he was called up, instead of letting him rot on the bench and putting Miguel Cairo in the slot to give Damon the time off.

Oh, side note. If he’s hurt and needs time off on a semi-regular basis, and he’s hitting .244/.345/.342, PUT THE GUY ON THE DL. Having him play every other day hurt isn’t helping the team.

Sorry, rant over. Back to the article.

“It’s still Johnny’s job,” Joe Torre said yesterday.

It would still be Johnny’s job if Duncan hit home runs in 15 straight games and Johnny Damon was hit by a semi. Torrebot does not compute not having Johnny Damon in the lineup.

I’m not saying that Damon should lose his job — the thought would be silly, especially since Damon’s a center fielder and Duncan is lucky to manage first base. I’m just saying that you could have two copies of Johnny Damon, with one being the current injured one and one being the healthy one we’ve seen the last few seasons. If the healthy one has the name Dohnny Jamon and came from AAA with no major league experience, Jamon wouldn’t have a chance that Damon’s job.

Then again, the manager has been known to ride a hot hand.

14 times. That’s how many times someone other than Cano/Rodriguez/Jeter/Matsui/Cabrera/Damon/Abreu has started at 2B/SS/3B/LF/CF/RF. Add to that Torrebot’s strict platoon of Doug Mientkiewicz and Josh Phelps (despite Phelps hitting much better than Mientkiewicz through most of the season) at first and that Torrebot continued to use Wil Nieves as his primary backup catcher, despite batting .125 in 56 at-bats, and you have the complete opposite of someone who plays the “hot hand”.

And no one was hotter yesterday than the batter who received two curtain calls to Alex Rodriguez’s none.

Whew, that was a close one. I thought we might be able to end an article in a New York based newspaper without an Alex Rodriguez slam. Crisis averted!

“I said to Alex, ‘Sorry, you’re not The Guy anymore,’ ” Torre said, mindful that Duncan trails A-Rod by 495 career homers.

And that Torre won’t remember Duncan’s name in a week.

What Torre, Rodriguez and everybody at the Stadium yesterday knew for sure

Everyone. No doubt in 54,751 peoples’ minds (not including employees, guests, teammates, or opposing team members). Undenyable FACT. Right up there with “sky is blue” and “I am attending a baseball game”.

is that Duncan always is going to try as hard as he can

Because that’s something you can tell from four games.. From the stands. UNDENYABLE FACT.

and that the Yankees are better than the Devil Rays. No question about that.

Which explains why the Devil Rays beat the Yanks 14–4 in the first game of the series. And why the Yankees are currently 7–5 against those same Devil Rays this season.

Undenyable fact, my friends.

Anyway, then they start mentioning a possible deal brewing between the Dodgers and Yanks with Scott Proctor getting shipped over to the Dodgers for Wilson Betemit. Buck mentions that he doesn’t know why the Yankees would do this deal.

For those of you new here, that’s Scott Proctor — Scott Proctor of the 1.430 WHIP. Scott Proctor who has pitched 130 games in the last season and a half. Scott Proctor who burned his uniform because teams hit .313 against him in June.

It’s not that Proctor is a bad pitcher; he’d probably be much better on a team not run by the Torrebot. But if there’s one thing the Yanks have to offer right now, it’s relief pitching. The Yanks are carrying 13 pitchers right now at the major league level, and have Chris Britton in AAA ready at a moment’s notice. Plus, there are other options deeper on the Scranton roster, like Jim Brower (1.77 ERA in 29 games) and Charlie Manning (47 K in 41.3 innings), not to mention Sean Henn, or using a guy like Matt DeSalvo or Chase Wright in a long relief role. The dropoff wouldn’t be that huge.

In contrast, you have Wilson Betemit (who I mentioned in yesterday’s article), who has an OPS more than 200 points higher than the man he’d be replacing, Miguel Cairo. Add to that Betemit’s ability to actually play three infield positions, in contrast to Cairo’s “I can play 2nd, kinda, and maybe left field and first base?“

However the biggest thing that acquiring Betemit would bring to the Yankees is giving the team an Alex Rodriguez safety net if Rodriguez decides to play hardball and terminates his contract. As it stands right now, the Yankees would have absolutely no one to take Rodriguez’s place if he left, putting the Yanks at in poor negotiation stance. While Betemit isn’t an ideal third baseman, he isn’t a horrific option at third (not like a not-ready Eric Duncan or scrambling to get an Aaron Boone or Russell Branyan) and allows it to work both ways — if Rodriguez does leave, the Yanks have a third baseman. If he doesn’t, the Yanks have someone on the bench who can play all the infield positions, have a little pop in his bat, and is only 25 years old.

Make the deal, Brian — don’t listen to Buck.

IN OTHER YANKEE NEWS: Rob Neyer in his blog (ESPN Insider subscription required) tells a good story about how the Yankees found Edwar Ramirez using the uncomplicated process of seeing really good statistics and confirming that he wasn’t a mental case before picking him up — sight unseen — to fill out their single-A roster. Now he’s in the majors, great story, etc.

It is a great story, and Ramirez’s numbers have been mind-boggling, with 33 strikeouts in 16 innings at AA Trenton and 47 strikeouts in 27 innings at AAA Scranton, which got him a callup to the majors. The downer for the story is that Ramirez is still in the Yankee organization, so he’s been used twice in the 13 games he’s been with the major league club. Over the course of a full season, that’d mean that Ramirez would get in all of 25 games. In comparison, the beforementioned Proctor is on a pace for 83 (on top of his 83 last season), Luis Vizcaino is set for 83 games, 74 for Mike Myers, and 72 for Brian Bruney and Kyle Farnsworth.

Why? Torrebot does not compute Edwar Ramirez. He was allowed to be used in a blowout victory to clean up the ninth inning (eight run lead), and struck out the side. Three games later, Torrebot allowed Ramirez to be used in a game that wasn’t completely in hand, with only a three run lead and a runner on base. Ramirez didn’t strike out every batter he faced that time, allowing the runner to score and walking another, giving up a hit (a DOUBLE, of all things), and hitting a batter. SYNTAX ERROR for Torrebot, and Ramirez hasn’t been used since.

I mentioned on one of my message boards that Ramirez wasn’t going to get called up despite his numbers because of Torre. I momentarily forgot that Torre wasn’t the team’s GM and didn’t control who got called up and who didn’t. Torre can’t stop people from being called up, but he sure as hell doesn’t have to use them if he doesn’t want to.

Rodriguez turns 32 later this month, and at the end of his current contract he’ll be 35. I’m no master of economics, but in all likelyhood the contract that Rodriguez would receive to play into his late 30s/early 40s would be larger if he were to sign an extension now than if he were to play to the end of this contract and entering the free agent market at the age of 35, when most players are seeing a decline in statistics (under investigation San Francisco outfielders excluded).

Agent Scott Boras’ threats (we’ll just say they’re his instead of Rodriguez just to make him look better and make an agent the villian, which is easy enough to do) to terminate Rodriguez’ contract at the end of this season and test the free agent market are geared solely at one team — the New York Yankees. Well, that’s obvious, since the team with the most to lose if Rodriguez does this is the Yankees, who lose one of the best offensive players in baseball, and receive no compensation for it.

The Yanks are in an unusual position though in that they have the most money to spend for Rodriguez, and not in the usual “Yankees are rich” way. With the way Rodriguez’ contract is structured right now and the agreement that the Yankees and Texas Randers made when the Yanks acquired Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano a few years back, the Yankees are only paying $16 million of the $27 million that Rodriguez is contractually obligated this season, and for the next three seasons barring a terminiation of the contract. If the contract is terminated, then Texas loses its obligation to Rodriguez and the Yankees, and everyone starts from scratch. This threat to terminate his contract is thought to add added leverage to whatever negociations that Rodriguez and Scott Boras wish to make, since the Yankees essentually have a “$33 million off” coupon that the player and agent can make expire.

Boras says that $32 million is a starting point, since after next season ROdriguez could force the Yankees (if he didn’t leave this season) to raise his salary $5 million a season from his current contract of $27 million per year. That’s not much of a threat, and even factoring in 2008 (which isn’t covered by that provision), it would cost the Yankees an additional $15 million, which is still made up for by the $33 million the Rangers are paying.

The question is an extension. All parties involved seem to be interested in an extension past 2010. How long that extension is involves two factors — the concern for potential dropoff of Rodriguez’s statistics after the 2010 season, and how long of a contract Rodriguez would stand to get if he became a free agent at the end of this season.

To try to grasp that, let’s look at the man Rodriguez was traded for — Alfonso Soriano. Soriano, the big ticket free agent last season, signed an 8 year contract, and he’s six months younger than Rodriguez. A similar 8 year deal for Rodriguez would mean a five year extension from the Yankees, or 8 years on the open market from another team, ending his contract at the age of 40. While the average free agent couldn’t command that kind of commitment, especially at the age of 32, Rodriguez isn’t your average free agent. Rodriguez stands right now as a Hall of Fame player; not “if he keeps up this pace”, but if he announced tomorrow that he wasn’t going to play another game, he would be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame on the first ballot. His skill level is there, so that when he does hit his decline, barring a complete disaster, he should still be a better than replacement level ballplayer for a long time to come.

Add onto that the home run record. While it’s a given that Barry Bonds is eventually going to break Hank Aaron’s 755 home run record, Bonds turns 43 years old in a week. He’ll break the record, but probably not break it by much, and I don’t expect him to play next season. If Bonds hits 30 home runs this season (he’s on a better pace and hit 26 last season), that’ll put the home run record at 764. Assuming Rodriguez stays healthy and hits home runs at the pace he has been (about 44 a season), it will take Rodriguez 5.66 seasons to pass Bonds, somewhere in 2013. The team that has him under contract has him for every home game during that chase, drawing in fans as he gets closer and closer. Even factoring in a decline or major injury would still put the mark within reach during that 8 year period.

That said, the Yankees have a built in 33 million discount on any contract that they can offer. The question is whether or not Boras and Rodriguez will actually go through with terminating the contract. My guess is that they won’t, mainly because if they do, I think it takes the Yankees out of the equation, and that’s the last thing — tabloids be damned — that Rodriguez and Boras would want to do.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Rodriguez wants to make $35 million a year for the next eight seasons. That’s his number, and he won’t back down from that. Even with his talent, that might be a hard sell to Boston or Chicago, who probably don’t want to commit $280 million dollars.

So Boras says “hey, for you guys, make it $30 million a year. Everyone else, it’s $35 million.” That would be something Boston or Chicago might listen to a lot more closely. It wouldn’t be something that Boras (or any player or agent, more than likely) would do, but if they did, that team would probably be a lot more willing to make that deal. That’s the position the Yankees are in, and that’s what Boras and Rodriguez are staring at. For the Yankees to offer Rodriguez a $35 million a year contract for the next eight seasons, the Yanks only need to spend $30.875 million a year (yeah, I said “only”), and advantage that other teams don’t have. If Rodriguez is truly looking for money, then the Yankees are the best place for him to get it.

So do the Yankees have the advantage in negociations? Not a chance. If Rodriguez isn’t looking for that much more money, he can terminate the contract and get at least what he’s making now (if not more) from another team. Is Rodriguez going to make as much money as he could with the Yankees and extending his contract? No, but it’s very unlikely that he’ll lose money compared to his current deal. Rodriguez has very little to lose. If you went to a casino and someone offered you a game to play where the worst you could do is get your money back, you’d play that game every time, all day long.

The Yankees, while getting back some payroll room ($16 million a year for the next three years), have to replace Rodriguez’s bat in the lineup. Here’s a list of OPS+ leaders as of right now for players who’ve played at least half their games at third base:

1. Rodriguez
2. Ryan Braun (MIL)
3. Chipper Jones (ATL)
4. Miguel Cabrera (FLA)
5. Troy Glaus (TOR)
6. David Wright (NYM)
7. Aramis Ramirez (CHN)
8. Mike Lowell (BOS)
9. Mike Lamb (HOU)
10. Mark Reynolds (ARI)
11. Casey Blake (CLE)
12. Adrian Beltre (SEA)
13. Wilson Betemit (LAD)
14. Hank Blalock (TEX)
15. Melvin Mora (BAL)

Braun, Chipper, and Wright just aren’t available. The same could probably be said for Mark Reynolds. Cabrera may or may not be shopped by Florida, but at this point, there really isn’t a package that the Yanks could put together to get him that they’d do. Glaus has a no-trade clause. Ramirez just signed a huge contract to re-up with the Cubs. Mike Lamb is a bit funny on that list since the Yanks picked him up after Aaron Boone’s injury left them with a hole at third base going into Spring Training, then dumped him off to Houston when they swung the Rodriguez trade. Betemit’s OPS+ is spiked because he plays for the Dodgers and recently had a power surge, but he failed miserably as a starter for the Dodgers at the beginning of the season and is now a bench player. Casey Blake still looks to be arbitration eligible, and depending on his price, the Indians would probably hang onto him.

Of those, that leaves one clearly available player (Mike Lowell), and a handful of guys (Beltre, Blalock, Mora) who teams might be willing to deal. Lowell will be 34 next season, Mora 36. Blalock still has holes in his swing and has seen his slugging percentage go down every year since his rookie season, and has an OPS 200 points higher at Texas’ hitter-friendly home park than on the road. Beltre? Inconsistant and still scheduled to make $12 million a year, and a career OPS of .786.

Given those options (keep in mind that most would have to be traded for, so money + prospects), then $30 million to Rodriguez doesn’t sound like a bad option, does it? Bear in mind that Rodriguez, offensively, has nearly twice the OPS+ of the average player — add that to the (eventual) chase for the record and the production that the player gives to the team on a consistant basis, and you have a solid investment, allowing the Yankees to focus in on larger areas of need.

Player A has eleven home runs, an OPS of .863, and is already in the game.

Player B has sixteen home runs, an OPS of .927, and is on the bench.

Eh — not much difference.� If looking solely at that, you’d take the player that’s in the game and leave the other player on the bench just in case.� Let’s look deeper.

Player B is a former MVP.� Player A has never received a MVP vote.

Well, awards are rewards for past performance.� What’s to say Player A won’t get MVP votes this year?� And it’s not like Player B is even a reigning MVP.

Player B has finished in the top 4 of the MVP race every year of his career, likely due to his career .330 batting average, 266 career home runs, and 1.037 career OPS.� Player A has a career batting average of .283 and has never finished a season with a batting average higher than .310.� He has 77 career home runs and a .791 career OPS, albeit in 242 less games.

Wow — a career .330 hitter?� Top four every season?� That’s pretty impressive.

Player B’s most similar batters through his age (thanks B-R) are Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson, and Joe DiMaggio.� Player A’s most similar batters through his age are Carl Everett, Shea Hillenbrand, and Milton Bradley.

Ew.� Keep in mind this is purely statistical though — if you think of things in common with Everett, Hillenbrand, and Bradley, it’s not their stat lines.

You know, maybe we’re looking at this too much in the past.� Baseball is about now — the hot hand, the live bat.� How about their last 40 games?

Player A: 4 HR, .289 BA, .807 OPS
Player B: 8 HR, .338 BA, 1.012 OPS

Um… their last 25 games?

Player A: 3 HR, .268 BA, .804 OPS
Player B: 1 HR, .337 BA, .893 OPS

Um… their last 10 games?

Player A: 1 HR, .241 BA, .729 OPS
Player B: 0 HR, .400 BA, .917 OPS

Yeah.� So back to “You’re The Manager”.� Bottom of the 9th, two out, bases loaded.� Down by one run.� Derrek Lee is on second, who has decent speed, so a base hit will probably get the winning run home.

If you’re the manager, who do you send up to the plate?� If you’re Tony LaRussa, you send up Player A, and you watch as Player A hits a fly ball to right field that is easily caught to end the game.� You lose, as Player B remains on the bench.

Perhaps Tony LaRussa was acting under misguided loyality, since this was an All-Star game and one of those players was from his team, the St. Louis Cardinals.� All-Star managers often stick to what is familiar to them.

Except that it was Player B who was on the Cardinals, not Player A.

For those who haven’t figured out by now, Player B is Albert Pujols, while Player A is Aaron Rowand.� Rowand, playing center field and 0–1 with a strikeout since coming in for Ken Griffey a few innings earlier, was scheduled to be the 8th batter in the NL lineup when the 9th inning started, and probably didn’t think he’d be batting when the first two NL batters were retired, leaving two outs with none on.� Then Dmitri Young, hitting for pitcher Trevor Hoffman, got an infield base hit, followed up by a two run home run from Alfonso Soriano.� Now it’s 5–4, with two outs and no one on.

J.J. Hardy walks.� Jim Leyland has enough, and pulls Seattle closer J.J. Putz for Anaheim closer Francisco Rodriguez.� Rodriguez walks Derrek Lee.� Rodriguez walks Orlando Hudson.� Rodriguez wets himself.

So now you have the bases loaded.� It’s the bottom of the ninth.� Since Lee has some speed, anything outside of an infield single will probably get him in from second to win the game.� A walk ties the game, and brings up Freddy Sanchez, who isn’t a horrible hitter.

So the question is who you’d rather have up to bat — the person more likely to get the base hit, or the person more likely to take advantage of the frazzled Rodriguez and take the walk to tie the game.

We’ve already stated that Pujols (Player B, for those not following) was the better career hitter, the better hitter the last few months, the better hitter the last month, and the better hitter over the last ten games.

Aaron Rowand has 29 walks this season.� Albert Pujols has 53.

So if you’re Tony LaRussa and you want the base hit, you go to Pujols.� If you want the walk, you go to Pujols.� If you want the guy you’re familiar with for the last six+ seasons, you go to Pujols.

But apparently, if you’re Tony LaRussa last night, you go with Aaron Rowand.

LaRussa justified keeping Pujols on the bench by saying that he needed him in case the game went into extra innings.� That’s a good strategy if you’re tied at the moment that decision needs to be made.� You know, if it’s currently possible to go into extra innings.� But when you’re down by a run and it’s the bottom of the 9th inning, extra innings isn’t the most likely of situations.

But not using your best hitter in a do-or-die situation is the equivalent of bringing a knife to a gunfight because you’ve only got one bullet, and you might have a gunfight tomorrow.

Tomorrow doesn’t matter if you’re dead today.

MLB.com’s game wrapup quoted Pujols:

“Maybe he was saving me for next year’s All-Star Game,” Pujols jokingly said.

Yeah, that “joking” didn’t last long:

“It’s the All-Star game. He can do what he wants,” Pujols said Tuesday night. “He does whatever he wants. If I wasn’t expecting to play, I wouldn’t have come up here.”

What’s that, Albert?� Did you just question managerial mastermind Tony LaRussa?

“If he wants to get upset, he can get upset,” La Russa said. “Whatever he wants to do, he can do. It’s America. That wasn’t the most important thing tonight.”

So keeping every player happy wasn’t the most important thing tonight, playing everyone wasn’t the most important thing tonight, and winning wasn’t the most important thing tonight.� Was there cancer research going on in the on-deck circle that hasn’t been announced to the media?� Was it a dying child’s wish to see Aaron Rowand bat twice in the All-Star game?

“Once we lost (Miguel) Cabrera and (Freddy) Sanchez, he [Pujols] was the guy we were going to use to protect ourselves in case we kept playing because of Albert’s versatility,” La Russa said. “I think we had the right guy at bat.”

I missed when Freddy Sanchez got hurt, apparently, because he was still in the lineup, and would have batted after Rowand.

Now defensive issues aside, had Rowand been taken out for Pujols and Pujols walked or taken an infield hit, leaving the game tied, then Freddy Sanchez (still alive) could have gotten out the following at-bat, putting the game into extra innings.� Pujols would have then had to move to left field, with Alfonso Soriano shifting over to center, leaving the National League with a less than desirable outfield defense.

However, under the scenario that LaRussa pictures, Pujols ends up at third base, a position he hadn’t played regularly since his rookie season, and at all since 2002.

So why is Freddy Sanchez gone?� Is LaRussa thinking too far ahead of himself, planning on pinch hitting for Sanchez with Pujols in the following at-bat?� Considering that Sanchez is arguably a better hitter than Rowand too, it seems like a severe case of either over-management, or just plain dropping the ball.

Watch carefully as a deal that seemed to work for both parties dies a horrible death, and think about what could have happened if the other party had followed the guidelines I talked about earlier.

One of my leagues uses a Yahoogroups mailing list for leaguewide announcements, specifically for keeping records of announced trades and the like. It’s meant to be a discussion list, so it defaults to replying back to the rest of the league. This works great when there’s a discussion about league rules, but when someone starts looking for or shopping players, there’s bound to be a reply meant for just that one person but sent to the entire league. Such a thing happened three weeks ago, when an owner (let’s call him “Apple”) responded to a request for pitching, making it known that Randy Johnson and Jason Jennings — two pitchers who had been on the DL this season but were back — were available.

Now, Apple has been in the league for a few years and been classified as a “future” owner; Apple loves the prospects and the great cheap contracts for young players. As a result, his teams are usually this horrible mixed bag of a few high priced name players and guys in AA. This usually gets him in trouble, and two losing seasons (70–92 and 74–88 respectively) have proven that, mainly because his teams have no depth. An injury here or there results in no backup to turn to, and in some cases he leaves the draft without a starter at multiple positions. This year’s draft was a little different in that he didn’t get in on the huge contracts (which can be difficult to trade mid-season with our cap structure) and scooped up some good value contracts when the rest of the league spent big early, but at the same time he went huge on players with zero track record in the league who weren’t guaranteed to be playing in the majors this season. Often, a rookie player or a top prospect will get bid up to $500,000 — this is the highest a contract can be that can be extended at the $100k level. The threat is that if the other person wants the player so bad, they have to bid $600,000, and that player’s second year of their contract becomes a $1.1 million deal — a bit much for an unknown quantity. Apple didn’t just hit that $600k barrier for one player — he did it for several, including a $2 million contract for catcher Miguel Montero, who had six games of major league experience, and only 36 games of AAA. Despite the high final bid, he still gave Montero a three year contract, meaning he was obligated to $2 million this season, $3 million next season, and $4 million the season after that. For perspective, I drafted Jorge Posada in this league this past draft for $3.9 million. Four time all-star .866 OPS last season Jorge Posada.

[Side note: Montero’s batting .218 with a .643 OPS, losing a platoon with Chris Snyder, who is batting .221 with a .671 OPS. Snyder was drafted for $500k.]

So in Apple, you have an owner who is addicted, seemingly, to the thrill of having the breakout guy, who likes Christmas shopping better than Christmas Day. So it didn’t surprise me that he was shopping two veterans and looking for draft picks and prospects. What did surprise me is that upon closer look, Apple had a winning record, only a few games behind the first place team in his division, and if the season had ended that day, a wild card entry into the playoffs.

And he was selling for next year.

So between the announcement to the whole league that major players (who were affordable) were available and the time ticking down before Apple realized that he could be buying instead of selling, I had to jump on the opportunity. I sent him an email:

Saw you were shopping Randy Johnson and I’d be interested in working out some kind of deal. I have my future FA picks, and I’m not sure if you have any interest in my minor league guys — I know there isn’t that much to pick from there.

Let me know — I’d be willing to talk about Jennings as well if Johnson is already gone, but I’d prefer Randy.

Granted, it kind of goes against my rule of approaching with an offer in hand, but Apple is an extremely tough read (and you’ll see why later), and I did approach with specific names and what I was offering, not just a “what would you want for him?” Note too that I was stating the difference in interest between Johnson and Jennings. While I could use Jennings, it was Johnson who was my top choice, and I wanted to make that clear. Often owners like to mix together numerous players and treat them similar despite their not having similar interest in the players in an effort to camouflage the player they truly want in case the other owner wants to run up the price. This results in a lot of unwanted substitution — when you go to turn the talk towards the player you really wanted, the other owner will end up replacing that player if they (like you) feel that the player that you really wanted is better than the other player. This results in a lot of wasted time and frustration.

Apple got back to me later that day:

I am always interested in draft picks and I can move either Johnson or Jennings. I also like Encaracion and Hamilton but I don’t think we could work out a deal for either one of them. Let me know your thoughts.

I will be in and out all day but I will keep checking my e-mail.

Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton are my two biggest bargaining chips as we go towards the trade deadline. Both have favorable contracts (Encarnacion with one more cheap year @ $600k, Hamilton with 3 more years @ $200-400k), but the catch is that both are currently starting for me, and playing pretty well. Trading either of them means having to replace them in the lineup, which would be tricky because it would mean taking on more contracts. Johnson, despite being affordable, has a salary just around my remaining cap room ($4.7 million), while Jennings sits at another three and a half. If I were to trade for either of these players, I couldn’t take on any more contracts. But, Apple himself seemed to understand this as he stated that he didn’t think we could do anything with them, so I came back with an offer that ignored Encarnacion and Hamilton but still worked for my cap number. It was probably shooting a little high, but it got us past vague offers into something solid to work from:

I’d be interested in either of them, and I’d be curious if you’d be open to dealing both. I’d be willing to offer two FA picks of your choice, and for salary reasons I’d have to offer you Brett Myers as well.

Would that be something you’d be interested in? Two FA picks of your choice and Myers for Randy Johnson and Jason Jennings?

Myers, whose demotion to the bullpen really hit my team hard, was on the DL at this point but scheduled to come back in a month. It wasn’t that I necessarily wanted to lose him, but his $5.7 million contract was definitely movable. It allowed me to take on both Johnson and Jennings, and still have a couple of million in cap room to make a few more deals later on if necessary. While I hoped that the deal would get accepted, I wasn’t optimistic. Note too that I left it open to him which FA picks he wanted; allowing the other GM to “craft his own deal” makes him feel more comfortable about it.

I wasn’t too surprised at the email I got back:

Just out of curiosity would you possibly move either of the players I mentioned?

So like five seconds after saying that he didn’t think we could do anything for those players, he asks about them. What he was really saying when he mentioned them the first time is a ploy I’ve done in the past just to throw out a player who you’d think is untouchable; you talk to someone about a backup first baseman, and in the talk you mention something like “well, I’d like to have Pujols manning first, but that’s not going to happen”, because your trading partner has Albert Pujols. You do it in the hopes of a reply like “yeah, the only way I’d trade Pujols is if you sent me [player]”, and then the mega-trade talks start.

However I didn’t do that, and it backfired on him. But that didn’t stop him from bringing it up anyway. Should he have been more straightforward? Probably, but even if he said “geez, I sure do like those guys”, it wouldn’t have mattered to me unless he gave me a reason to deal those guys off. I tried to be nice though and explain my position:

Maybe a little bit later, but not right now — both are starting for me right now and if I were to deal them I’d need an upgrade at those positions. It’d be one thing if they were on my bench, but my depth sucks.

Come the deadline, I’ll definitely keep you in mind, especially with Hamels on your roster.

The best I can do right now is:

I receive:

Randy Johnson ($4.2)
Jason Jennings ($3.4)
Adrian Beltre ($3.6)

You receive:

Edwin Encarnacion ($0.5)
Brett Myers ($5.7)
Jeff Weaver ($0.7)
June FA pick
August FA pick

He countered a few days later with this:

Just tossing this out there..

Tavarez .3 or Mathews 1.8
Beltre 3.4
R.Johnson 4.2
Jennings 3.4

FOR

Encarnacion .5
Hamilton .1
B.Myers 5.7
June FA Pick

I only have 4.5 million in cap room, so I’m still trying to figure out what would work for me — unfortunately I don’t have any other “big” contracts that I’m not using

A few questions — do you plan on DITRing Peralta, and would you consider dealing Putz in a deal, even a possible deal where I’d trade him back to you after the season is over?

• I asked about the player
• He said he wasn’t sure if he was keeping him for next year
• I said that if it were me, I wouldn’t extend him for next year
• He went to the league and told them he was available

I was thinking:

Gary Matthews (1.8)
Adrian Beltre (3.4)
Randy Johnson (4.2)
Jason Jennings (3.4)
J.J. Putz (.3)

FOR

Edwin Encarnacion (.5)
Josh Hamilton (.1)
Brett Myers (5.7)
Bob Howry (2.0)
Eric Duncan (.3)
June FA pick

I would end up receiving this:

How about this:

Mathews 1.8
Jennings 3.4

for

Hamilton .1
Howry 2.0
Your June & August FA Picks

Let me know or send a counter

Beltre
Johnson

for

Encarnacion
Myers
June FA pick

Further unraveling:

Let me know what you think. I am fielding offers from three teams trying to get the best deal possible

offered you a better deal earlier but I’m openly telling you that I’m working your deal with other people so feel lucky you’re even still in the mix.”

Those offers are pretty much the best I can do — I mentioned Peralta in a thought that I could potentially swap Durham for Peralta and play him at second base if you weren’t going to DITR him next season (which would free up another $0.3 in cap in a deal), but that would be a minimal cap fix and you could probably find better value for Peralta if you were to deal him elsewhere.

This is pretty much the best I can do, with the biggest deal being:

Gary Matthews (1.8)
Adrian Beltre (3.4)
Randy Johnson (4.2)
Jason Jennings (3.4)
J.J. Putz (.3)

FOR

Edwin Encarnacion (.5)
Josh Hamilton (.1)
Brett Myers (5.7)
Bob Howry (2.0)
Eric Duncan (.3)
June FA pick
August FA pick <– last time I offered this the August pick wasn’t included

or something smaller, such as:

Beltre
Johnson

for

Encarnacion
Myers
June FA pick

Anyway, let me know.

I should have known better:

I would want to see if anyone else in the league would be interested in him but how about this:

M.Owings and W.Tavarez

FOR
J.Hamilton and June FA PICK

I know Hamilton is better than Tavarez but I thought Owings for the June FA pick might balance it.

Let me know what you think.

That’s the Johnson and Jennings who Apple apparently refuses to speak to me about.

I went in a different direction with the pick, however, hoping to still

Anyway, let me know if you’ve thought of anything different.

Some hints:

I’ll follow this up in the near future with a look at some of the deals I did this season, how I did them, and some of the deals that didn’t quite work out.