Rodriguez turns 32 later this month, and at the end of his current contract he'll be 35. I'm no master of economics, but in all likelyhood the contract that Rodriguez would receive to play into his late 30s/early 40s would be larger if he were to sign an extension now than if he were to play to the end of this contract and entering the free agent market at the age of 35, when most players are seeing a decline in statistics (under investigation San Francisco outfielders excluded).

Agent Scott Boras' threats (we'll just say they're his instead of Rodriguez just to make him look better and make an agent the villian, which is easy enough to do) to terminate Rodriguez' contract at the end of this season and test the free agent market are geared solely at one team - the New York Yankees. Well, that's obvious, since the team with the most to lose if Rodriguez does this is the Yankees, who lose one of the best offensive players in baseball, and receive no compensation for it.

The Yanks are in an unusual position though in that they have the most money to spend for Rodriguez, and not in the usual "Yankees are rich" way. With the way Rodriguez' contract is structured right now and the agreement that the Yankees and Texas Randers made when the Yanks acquired Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano a few years back, the Yankees are only paying $16 million of the $27 million that Rodriguez is contractually obligated this season, and for the next three seasons barring a terminiation of the contract. If the contract is terminated, then Texas loses its obligation to Rodriguez and the Yankees, and everyone starts from scratch. This threat to terminate his contract is thought to add added leverage to whatever negociations that Rodriguez and Scott Boras wish to make, since the Yankees essentually have a "$33 million off" coupon that the player and agent can make expire.

Boras says that $32 million is a starting point, since after next season ROdriguez could force the Yankees (if he didn't leave this season) to raise his salary $5 million a season from his current contract of $27 million per year. That's not much of a threat, and even factoring in 2008 (which isn't covered by that provision), it would cost the Yankees an additional $15 million, which is still made up for by the $33 million the Rangers are paying.

The question is an extension. All parties involved seem to be interested in an extension past 2010. How long that extension is involves two factors - the concern for potential dropoff of Rodriguez's statistics after the 2010 season, and how long of a contract Rodriguez would stand to get if he became a free agent at the end of this season.

To try to grasp that, let's look at the man Rodriguez was traded for - Alfonso Soriano. Soriano, the big ticket free agent last season, signed an 8 year contract, and he's six months younger than Rodriguez. A similar 8 year deal for Rodriguez would mean a five year extension from the Yankees, or 8 years on the open market from another team, ending his contract at the age of 40. While the average free agent couldn't command that kind of commitment, especially at the age of 32, Rodriguez isn't your average free agent. Rodriguez stands right now as a Hall of Fame player; not "if he keeps up this pace", but if he announced tomorrow that he wasn't going to play another game, he would be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame on the first ballot. His skill level is there, so that when he does hit his decline, barring a complete disaster, he should still be a better than replacement level ballplayer for a long time to come.

Add onto that the home run record. While it's a given that Barry Bonds is eventually going to break Hank Aaron's 755 home run record, Bonds turns 43 years old in a week. He'll break the record, but probably not break it by much, and I don't expect him to play next season. If Bonds hits 30 home runs this season (he's on a better pace and hit 26 last season), that'll put the home run record at 764. Assuming Rodriguez stays healthy and hits home runs at the pace he has been (about 44 a season), it will take Rodriguez 5.66 seasons to pass Bonds, somewhere in 2013. The team that has him under contract has him for every home game during that chase, drawing in fans as he gets closer and closer. Even factoring in a decline or major injury would still put the mark within reach during that 8 year period.

That said, the Yankees have a built in 33 million discount on any contract that they can offer. The question is whether or not Boras and Rodriguez will actually go through with terminating the contract. My guess is that they won't, mainly because if they do, I think it takes the Yankees out of the equation, and that's the last thing - tabloids be damned - that Rodriguez and Boras would want to do.

Let's say, for argument's sake, that Rodriguez wants to make $35 million a year for the next eight seasons. That's his number, and he won't back down from that. Even with his talent, that might be a hard sell to Boston or Chicago, who probably don't want to commit $280 million dollars.

So Boras says "hey, for you guys, make it $30 million a year. Everyone else, it's $35 million." That would be something Boston or Chicago might listen to a lot more closely. It wouldn't be something that Boras (or any player or agent, more than likely) would do, but if they did, that team would probably be a lot more willing to make that deal. That's the position the Yankees are in, and that's what Boras and Rodriguez are staring at. For the Yankees to offer Rodriguez a $35 million a year contract for the next eight seasons, the Yanks only need to spend $30.875 million a year (yeah, I said "only"), and advantage that other teams don't have. If Rodriguez is truly looking for money, then the Yankees are the best place for him to get it.

So do the Yankees have the advantage in negociations? Not a chance. If Rodriguez isn't looking for that much more money, he can terminate the contract and get at least what he's making now (if not more) from another team. Is Rodriguez going to make as much money as he could with the Yankees and extending his contract? No, but it's very unlikely that he'll lose money compared to his current deal. Rodriguez has very little to lose. If you went to a casino and someone offered you a game to play where the worst you could do is get your money back, you'd play that game every time, all day long.

The Yankees, while getting back some payroll room ($16 million a year for the next three years), have to replace Rodriguez's bat in the lineup. Here's a list of OPS+ leaders as of right now for players who've played at least half their games at third base:

1. Rodriguez
2. Ryan Braun (MIL)
3. Chipper Jones (ATL)
4. Miguel Cabrera (FLA)
5. Troy Glaus (TOR)
6. David Wright (NYM)
7. Aramis Ramirez (CHN)
8. Mike Lowell (BOS)
9. Mike Lamb (HOU)
10. Mark Reynolds (ARI)
11. Casey Blake (CLE)
12. Adrian Beltre (SEA)
13. Wilson Betemit (LAD)
14. Hank Blalock (TEX)
15. Melvin Mora (BAL)

Braun, Chipper, and Wright just aren't available. The same could probably be said for Mark Reynolds. Cabrera may or may not be shopped by Florida, but at this point, there really isn't a package that the Yanks could put together to get him that they'd do. Glaus has a no-trade clause. Ramirez just signed a huge contract to re-up with the Cubs. Mike Lamb is a bit funny on that list since the Yanks picked him up after Aaron Boone's injury left them with a hole at third base going into Spring Training, then dumped him off to Houston when they swung the Rodriguez trade. Betemit's OPS+ is spiked because he plays for the Dodgers and recently had a power surge, but he failed miserably as a starter for the Dodgers at the beginning of the season and is now a bench player. Casey Blake still looks to be arbitration eligible, and depending on his price, the Indians would probably hang onto him.

Of those, that leaves one clearly available player (Mike Lowell), and a handful of guys (Beltre, Blalock, Mora) who teams might be willing to deal. Lowell will be 34 next season, Mora 36. Blalock still has holes in his swing and has seen his slugging percentage go down every year since his rookie season, and has an OPS 200 points higher at Texas' hitter-friendly home park than on the road. Beltre? Inconsistant and still scheduled to make $12 million a year, and a career OPS of .786.

Given those options (keep in mind that most would have to be traded for, so money + prospects), then $30 million to Rodriguez doesn't sound like a bad option, does it? Bear in mind that Rodriguez, offensively, has nearly twice the OPS+ of the average player - add that to the (eventual) chase for the record and the production that the player gives to the team on a consistant basis, and you have a solid investment, allowing the Yankees to focus in on larger areas of need.