Buhner Dot Com Est. 2000, which is like 1947 in Internet years.

20Sep/110

What would you do if you were the Yankees?

With Boston splitting their doubleheader yesterday with Baltimore (wasting their week's allotment of runs in the second game, dropping 18 runs and giving Brian Matusz the worst ERA for a starter since fellow scrub Roy Halladay - wait, what?), the Sox remain two games up on Tampa for the AL Wild Card with 10 (8 for Boston) games left to play. Seven of the ten games Tampa has left are against the AL East leading Yankees, including a four game series in the Bronx tonight. The Yanks are five games ahead of Boston and seven ahead of Tampa.

So with the Yankees taking two of four from Tampa, they're in the playoffs. That being said... do you take it easy on Tampa just to ensure Boston doesn't make the playoffs? I mean, you can get away with not playing your best team (a major injury before the playoffs would be killer), just to ensure that your biggest rival completes one of the most dramatic regular season collapses in baseball history?

Me - I'd love to see Boston fail, but there's the other side of this coin too. Tampa has been one of the best teams in baseball during September, while Boston has been one of the worst. While having Boston collapse might seem fun, having them limp into the playoffs would seem to help the Yankees in their drive for another championship better than allowing one of the hottest teams in MLB in would. Expect the Yankees to play like they (or any other team) normally would in late September with the playoffs almost in the bag, regardless of opponent.

19Sep/110

How Historic Would A Boston Collapse Be?

OK - it's understood that I'm a Yankees fan and take great joy in any kind of Red Sox failure. So with Boston only two games ahead in the AL Wild Card standings after dropping three of four to Tampa in Boston, I'm starting to enjoy September baseball much more than I did going into it.

Going into September, the Sawks were 83-52, a game and a half up on the Yankees for first place in the AL East and 9 games ahead of Tampa Bay. Statistically, they stood a 61.9% chance of winning the division, and a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs. [thanks coolstandings.com] Of all the teams in baseball, only Philadelphia (on a pace to win 105 games at that point) stood a better chance of making the playoffs.

Now, if Boston goes 5-5 in their next ten games and the Rays go 8-2, the Sawks clean out their lockers and work on their golf swings. Boston has gone 4-13 in September, second-worst in baseball (behind Minnesota - WTF happened there?) while Tampa has put together an 11-6 record.

Now while Boston's playoff chances bursting into flames is fun, it wouldn't be the worst collapse ever. And no Mets fans (like a Mets fan would read this) - it's not your 2007 collapse either (which at 99.5% still is a little bit more trainwreckish than what Boston is facing right now). That award goes to the 1995 California Angels, who on August 24th had a 99.9% chance of making the newly expanded playoffs, and came up one game short.

At 67-44, the Angels were 8.5 games ahead of second-place Texas (who also wouldn't make the playoffs, and 11.5 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners (watch out for them.) The Angels had a tremendous offense led by Tim Salmon (who went a career-best .330/.429/.594 with 34 HR and 105 RBI, good enough for... 7th in the MVP voting? Really?*) and bosted seven regulars with an OPS of .800 or better. However, the team would go 11-22 in its remaining schedule, while the Mariners would go 23-11, forcing a one-game playoff. The Angels put ex-Mariner Mark Langston on the hill, while the Mariners countered with Randy Johnson, one of the players the M's got for Langston when they dealt him six years earlier.

Did I mention this was Johnson's first Cy Young season, where he went 18-2, struck out almost 300, and was on his way to establishing William Wallace-like cred by closing out games he didn't start and ruining happy endings of movies?

The Mariners would go on to crush the Angels 9-1 in that playoff, and the Angels wouldn't reach the playoffs again until 2002, when they rode the back of some lucky monkey and a clutch rookie pitcher who won Game 7 of the World Series by the name of John Lackey.

Boy, those Sawks could really use a pitcher like Lackey right now. What? Oh, right.

[*Jay Buhner came in 5th that season in the AL MVP balloting, so I cannot complain about any results.]

6Sep/110

Looking Back – The 2006 MLB Trade Deadline (Part 3)

[NOTE: In case you missed them, here's Part 1 and Part 2]

Working the trade deadline (and the weeks before that) is similar to the dilemma that comic fans have when shopping at a comic convention. When you first arrive, you're excited to get what you want, and there are plenty of sellers. But what they're offering may not be the best they have to offer, and they are likely to be priced higher than the seller really thinks they're worth. If you luck out, you may find one seller that hasn't gauged the market and has a bargain out there, but those are far and few between.

The buyer who waits until the last day of the show - those are the ones who get the deals. Knowing that they don't want to lug all this stuff back to where they originally came from, sellers are more likely to mark down or negotiate a better price just to make sure that they get something for what they were selling, instead of going home without a sale. The seller might also be selling something that he wasn't selling earlier in the show - something he wasn't going to sell earlier but changed his mind. However, the buyer who waits until the last day looking for bargains may miss out on the things he really wanted - which were sold earlier - and risks either coming home himself empty-handed, or even worse buying something he didn't really need just to say he bought something there, and dealing with the buyer's regret in the months that follow.

So let's see who got screwed on the 2006 trade deadline's Sunday afternoon:

13Jul/100

George Steinbrenner (1930-2010)

George Steinbrenner passed away today from a massive heart attack. He was 80 years old. Steinbrenner was the principal owner of the New York Yankees and the definition of "hands-on owner" from the time the ownership group he led purchased the team in 1973 until 2007 when he transitioned the day-to-day operations of the Yankees to his sons. There had been rumors of health issues for several years, and after his sons took over the team he was seen less frequently publicly.

24Jul/070

Fire Buhner Dot Com

I'm a big fan of the guys at firejoemorgan.com , especially since I've been known to disect articles like they do while reading them. So I took a shot at taking apart one of the New York-based newsrags (sadly, probably the best of the three tabloids) articles focusing on one of my new Yankee man-crushes, Shelley Duncan . It may not be up to the standards of FJM, but it came surprisingly easy, I guess with such an easy target.

18Jul/070

Desperately Seeking Wilson

I'm normally a fan of the XM Baseball morning show with Buck Martinez (who will be forever ruined to me thanks to Triple Play '99) and the other guy, but they were pulling some things out of their ass this morning. They were doing some seemingly "on the fly" discussion of last year's deadline trades (I say "seemingly" because they plugged it several times as coming up during the show, but the prep work involved seemed to be a transaction list from last July) and made accurate comments on what trades have worked (boy, the Nationals really bent over the Reds on that Kearns/Majewski deal), but usually missed the mark on why (Ryan Wagner is pitching "well" for the Nats [5.74 ERA in 14 games before season-ending surgery], Bill Bray is getting hammered for the Reds [hasn't pitched this season due to injury]).

17Jul/070

A-Rod and Boras

Alex Rodriguez is scheduled to make $27 million a year for the next three years after this season is complete. He can elect to terminate this contract in order to receive more money, upwards of $32 million a year, and tacking on additional years to his contract that would likely be his last huge money contract, or at least the last one that would end in his "prime".

Rodriguez turns 32 later this month, and at the end of his current contract he'll be 35. I'm no master of economics, but in all likelyhood the contract that Rodriguez would receive to play into his late 30s/early 40s would be larger if he were to sign an extension now than if he were to play to the end of this contract and entering the free agent market at the age of 35, when most players are seeing a decline in statistics (under investigation San Francisco outfielders excluded).

Agent Scott Boras' threats (we'll just say they're his instead of Rodriguez just to make him look better and make an agent the villian, which is easy enough to do) to terminate Rodriguez' contract at the end of this season and test the free agent market are geared solely at one team - the New York Yankees. Well, that's obvious, since the team with the most to lose if Rodriguez does this is the Yankees, who lose one of the best offensive players in baseball, and receive no compensation for it.

13Dec/030

Panic? Nah, the Yanks never do that.

Sure, it's easy to look at the Yankees right now and assume that they're in full panic mode. It's fun to think that George Steinbrenner is yelling at everyone in his employ right now because he didn't get his way.

But let's not get carried away.

Andy Pettitte is a good left-handed pitcher, but he isn't exactly Whitey Ford. As I said in my blueprint for the Yankees offseason, it would be good for Andy Pettitte to remain a Yankee, but the team had to be careful not to overspend for him. The team almost did overspend for him, reportedly offering him something in the range of $13 million a year to stay in the Bronx.

While Pettitte didn't take the bait (and I really didn't think he ever intended on re-signing with New York, and I think, deep down inside, the Yankees believed that too), the Yankees then went ahead and agreed to a trade that would bring Kevin Brown over to New York for Jeff Weaver, two unnamed minor league players, and $3 million.

Despite what Andy Pettitte or the Houston Astros would like you to believe, Pettitte isn't worth $13 million a year, or even $10 million a year. He's got a career ERA around 4, has only led the AL in a statistical catagory twice (wins in 1996 and games started in 1997), and only came close to winning the Cy Young Award once in his career, eight years ago (losing to Pat Hentgen and finishing above middle reliever Mariano Rivera, who came in third).

When Pettitte is discussed by those supporting him, two things are brought up; the fact that he wins games, and that he's a machine in the postseason. Winning games is reliant directly on the team that surrounds him. Chris George of the the Royals managed to win nine games in 18 starts despite having a 7.11 ERA. Would he be classified as a winner? Can Chris George walk into an arbitration hearing and explain to the judge that it was purely his ability that allowed the Royals to win games by scoring massive amounts of runs during games that he pitched, despite the fact that George, as an American League pitcher, doesn't get to bat (and therefore contribute to the offensive outburst) and when he is on the field, allow a run for every four outs the opposing team makes?

This isn't to say that Pettitte was as bad as Chris George was last year, not by a longshot. But no one was talking about offering George $13 million a year, either. While Pettitte's 21 wins led the Yankees last season, one could easily argue that he wasn't the #1 starter in the Yankees rotation last year. In fact, one could argue that Pettitte was the Yankees _fourth_ starter last season, behind Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, and Jose Contreras, all of whom had better ERAs than Pettitte. With Mussina and Contreras returning and the retiring Clemens' spot replaced by Javier Vazquez (who by far was a better and more dominating pitcher than Pettitte last season), the Yankees were left with the possibility of giving $13 million dollars to a 4th starter.

The Yankees are, however, giving $15 million to a 4th starter, it would seem, by aquiring Kevin Brown from Los Angeles. While Brown is going to be 39 years old during the 2004 season, he's had an ERA over 3 once in the last eight seasons; in 2002, where he struggled with an injury.

Brown's contract may be cumbersome and a relic of the free-spending past, one forgets a key part of this deal: Jeff Weaver.

While I've been a supporter of Weaver (and felt that he's a much better pitcher than he showed last year), getting rid of Weaver (and his contract) can be looked as nothing more than a positive. While getting out of New York and into the pitchers paradise that is Chavez Ravine expects to do wonders for Weaver, trading him for a bowl of soup would heva been in the Yankees best interest. Getting a All-Star caliber pitcher out of the deal is only a bonus. Factoring in Weaver's contract (which also lasts for two more years) and the money New York is sending to LA to complete the deal, Brown will cost the Yankees $11.75 million in 2004 and $5.75 million in 2005.

A little less shocking now, isn't it?

The loss off Pettitte, understandibly, was a shock to Yankee fans. This wasn't one of the playes that the Yankees picked up in a trade or free agency that decided to leave. Pettitte has only played in the Yankees system his entire career, and has pitched for the Yanks since 1995, having come up as a 23 year old and establishing himself in the Yankees rotation that season, just in time for the Yankees rise to dynasty-level. Pettitte, just like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, and to a lesser extent Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams, are the Yankees that were developed in the Yankee system which brought the team to the level where it could pull itself out of the quagmire that was the late 80s-early 90s and regain the Yankee legacy.

But emotional ties have to be cut eventually, and reality has to set in. Who you like and who makes your team better can be two different things, and in these moves, the Yankees are coming off a lot smarter than everyone wants to think they are.