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	<title>Buhner Dot Com &#187; Tony LaRussa</title>
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		<title>Pujols&#8217; Boner(s)</title>
		<link>http://blog.buhner.com/2011/10/26/pujols-boners/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.buhner.com/2011/10/26/pujols-boners/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Oct 2011 20:19:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011 MLB Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2011 World Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Albert Pujols]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Allen Craig]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony LaRussa]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.buhner.com/?p=929</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yes, I've been dying to use that. Sometimes I have the mentality of a ten-year-old boy. Anyway, Albert Pujols hasn't been having the best World Series. Sure, it looks fine because he had one of the single greatest World Series performances in Game 3, going 5-6 with three home runs, becoming only the third person [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, I've been dying to use that. Sometimes I have the mentality of a ten-year-old boy.</p>
<p>Anyway, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> hasn't been having the best World Series. Sure, it looks fine because he had one of the single greatest World Series performances in Game 3, going 5-6 with three home runs, becoming only the third person in World Series history to hit three home runs in a single game, joining Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson. However, take that game away, and Pujols is 0-12. Sure, there are the intentional walks, but even after walking three times in Game 5, it was the strikeout in the top of the ninth (which created two outs, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Allen Craig</a></strong> was thrown out stealing on an attempted hit-and-run) that leaves the lasting memory and perhaps is more reflective on Pujols' World Series than his "Mr. October" impression in Game 3.<span id="more-929"></span></p>
<p>Pujols hasn't faced much criticism as a player since his tremendous 2001 rookie season where he hit .329/.403/.610 with 37 home runs and 130 RBI as a 21-year-old. That's understandable - Pujols has never really had an "off" year statistically (this season, arguably his "worst", saw him put up a .299/.366/.541 line with 37 home runs and 99 RBI), doesn't make waves in the media, isn't particularly outlandish or boastful, and plays in St. Louis, where the media isn't looking to bury him at every turn. When he becomes a free agent this offseason, he'll command one of (if not <em>the</em>) top salary in baseball, and understandably so. That said, Pujols has now made two major errors in judgement in this series that, on baseball's biggest stage, show that Pujols perhaps isn't the "machine" that he's accused of being, and may end up costing the Cardinals the series.</p>
<ul>
<li>Game 2 - Cardinals up 1-0, top of the 9th inning, runner on second, no outs.</li>
</ul>
<p>After the Rangers' <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ian Kinsler</a></strong> led off the 9th with a bloop base hit, the Texas second baseman stole second base, which itself wasn't really Pujols' fault. Kinsler was 30 for 34 in stolen base attempts this season, and despite rocket-armed <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yadier Molina</a></strong> behind the plate, runners are a career 9 for 12 in stolen base attempts against pitcher <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/motteja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Motte</a></strong>. However, with Kinsler on second, batter <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Elvis Andrus</a></strong> hits a line drive into center field for a base hit that Cards center fielder John Jay scoops up pretty quickly and fires home. The throw isn't a strong one and comes in somewhat low, which Pujols - the cutoff man in this play - muffs by getting a tiny piece of the ball with his glove, not only not making the cutoff, but also slightly slowing down the ball and changing the route of it somewhat, causing Molina to scramble to get the throw. This slowdown and scramble allows Andrus - a fast runner to begin with - to advance to second base, putting both runners in scoring position with no one out and the #3 batter in the order coming to the plate. This play causes a 26% shift in winning probability, the first shift positively in the Rangers favor since the fourth inning, and would result in the Rangers scoring two in the inning and later winning the game by a 2-1 margin.</p>
<p>While it's easy to defend Pujols by blaming the throw, in reality it was a confused Pujols who didn't know if he should have made the cutoff or let the ball go by the time it got to him, so he did both. Generally, Pujols shouldn't have to make this call - the catcher should. The beauty of being the catcher is that you watch the entire play unfold and see what's going on. If this is happening in a beer league softball game, I'm yelling at Pujols to cut off the ball, because I know that Kinsler doesn't have a good enough jump and wouldn't go for home, unless he wanted to get nailed at the plate. But since this isn't beer league softball, either Molina doesn't signal Pujols to cut off the ball (unlikely), Pujols doesn't hear Molina and makes his own decision, or Pujols hears Molina call for the cut, then looks over at Kinsler, then changes his mind. Whatever the case, Pujols (who ideally should just be focusing on the throw) ends up watching Kinsler as the throw comes in, misses the ball, and allows Andrus to move to second, into scoring position, and taking away the force play. Pujols would end up with an error on the play from the St. Louis scorekeeper (<em>after</em> the completion of the game), but really this was less an actual "error" and more of a mental gaffe - one that ends up costing the Cardinals the game. If Pujols cuts that ball off, Andrus stays at first, and the two flyouts and groundout that follow score one run, not two.</p>
<ul>
<li>Game 5 - Teams tied 2-2, top of the 7th inning, runner on first, one out.</li>
</ul>
<p>Allen Craig, called a "below average runner" by Baseball America's 2011 Prospect Handbook, stands on first base. Now, I understand that Albert Pujols grounded into 29 double plays this season, the most in Major League Baseball. Pujols was facing <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ogandal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Alexi Ogando</a></strong>, who had been hammered two nights earlier and had just walked the batter before him. Maybe Pujols assumed that Ogando was going to throw him one right down the middle, but even still - when the batter before you walks, one of the thoughts in your mind has to be that you might not get the most accurate pitches in the world, especially when you're Albert Pujols.</p>
<p>Still, Pujols calls for a hit-and-run. He <em>himself</em> calls for it - not a manager, but the player himself. Now, I didn't realize that players did this, let alone a player <em>managed by Tony LaRussa</em>. LaRussa's in the dugout with barometers, databases, and an oracle. LaRussa manages a game so advanced, he sees it in 4D. But somehow, Pujols sees something that LaRussa doesn't see (a fifth dimension, maybe?) and calls for the hit-and-run.</p>
<p>Here's when you call for a hit-and-run: average to good runner on base, contact/slap hitter at the plate. The hit-and-run is for the batter with too much pride to sacrifice bunt. Ichiro, Wade Boggs, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnto02.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Tony Gwynn</a></strong>, <a href="http://otbl.org/OOTP/StatsLab/player.php?player_id=9498" target="_blank">Ralph Shields</a> - these are people I hit-and-run with. People who you can throw a pitch 55 feet and they'll still hit it on the hop. Pujols? I don't know - I can't put my finger on it, but Pujols just doesn't seem like a batting title guy. He doesn't strike me as a batter who can hit <em>anything</em> - but more of a batter who hits almost everything that he should, and well.</p>
<p>But the worst part about Pujols and the hit-and-run wasn't that he called for it in the first place, but that when he did and the pitch came in, <strong>he never bothered to swing</strong>.</p>
<blockquote><p>"It was a 99-mph pitch away that I couldn't even get my bat on," [Pujols] said. "<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19946889&amp;topic_id=25589392&amp;c_id=mlb&amp;tcid=vpp_copy_19946889&amp;v=3" target="_blank">So I let it go.</a>"</p></blockquote>
<p>Here's the thing - try. It wasn't impossible to hit. It was high and outside, sure, but he could have at least made an effort to hit it. What was Pujols afraid of? Going down 0-2 in the count? Grounding out? In taking the pitch, Pujols essentially sacrificed his own baserunner to save his own at-bat, something that he himself called for. It's not like Craig was going to steal the base - hit-and-run baserunners get a lesser jump than regular stolen base attempts, and Allen Craig isn't a stolen base threat in the first place. It came off like something you'd see in a baseball movie as a prank to screw over the player on first - embarrass him by sending him on a hit-and run where the batter doesn't swing, then when the inning is over, tell him to stop flirting with your wife.</p>
<p>Of course, it didn't stop Tony LaRussa from trying it <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19947747&amp;topic_id=25589392&amp;c_id=mlb&amp;tcid=vpp_copy_19947747&amp;v=3" target="_blank">TWO INNINGS LATER</a>.</p>
<p>While Pujols may make up for this and the Cardinals may end up winning the series, maybe it's time we stop looking at Albert Pujols as a "perfect player". He's still only 31, and has time to learn more, but if those two plays are reflective of his understanding of the game at large, then maybe his final game - whenever that will be - will be the last time we see Albert Pujols in a baseball uniform, and not running the show from some dugout after retirement.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Tomorrow doesn&#8217;t matter if you&#8217;re dead today</title>
		<link>http://blog.buhner.com/2007/07/11/tomorrow-doesnt-matter-if-youre-dead-today/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.buhner.com/2007/07/11/tomorrow-doesnt-matter-if-youre-dead-today/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Jul 2007 15:56:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Rowand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Albert Pujols]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB All-Star Game]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony LaRussa]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.buhner.com/2007/07/11/tomorrow-doesnt-matter-if-youre-dead-today/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ready for some fun, kids?� Let's play "You're The Manager." � Baseball managers make very important decisions that their years of experience in baseball can give them insight that an outsider like you or me can only dream to have.� But let's pretend, shall we? Player A has eleven home runs, an OPS of .863, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ready for some fun, kids?� Let's play "You're The Manager." � Baseball managers make very important decisions that their years of experience in baseball can give them insight that an outsider like you or me can only dream to have.� But let's pretend, shall we?<span id="more-235"></span></p>
<p>Player A has eleven home runs, an OPS of .863, and is already in the game.</p>
<p>Player B has sixteen home runs, an OPS of .927, and is on the bench.</p>
<p>Eh - not much difference.� If looking solely at that, you'd take the player that's in the game and leave the other player on the bench just in case.� Let's look deeper.</p>
<p>Player B is a former MVP.� Player A has never received a MVP vote.</p>
<p>Well, awards are rewards for past performance.� What's to say Player A won't get MVP votes this year?� And it's not like Player B is even a reigning MVP.</p>
<p>Player B has finished in the top 4 of the MVP race every year of his career, likely due to his career .330 batting average, 266 career home runs, and 1.037 career OPS.� Player A has a career batting average of .283 and has never finished a season with a batting average higher than .310.� He has 77 career home runs and a .791 career OPS, albeit in 242 less games.</p>
<p>Wow - a career .330 hitter?� Top four every season?� That's pretty impressive.</p>
<p>Player B's most similar batters through his age (thanks B-R) are Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson, and Joe DiMaggio.� Player A's most similar batters through his age are Carl Everett, Shea Hillenbrand, and Milton Bradley.</p>
<p>Ew.� Keep in mind this is purely statistical though - if you think of things in common with Everett, Hillenbrand, and Bradley, it's not their stat lines.</p>
<p>You know, maybe we're looking at this too much in the past.� Baseball is about now - the hot hand, the live bat.� How about their last 40 games?</p>
<p>Player A: 4 HR, .289 BA, .807 OPS<br />
Player B: 8 HR, .338 BA, 1.012 OPS</p>
<p>Um... their last 25 games?</p>
<p>Player A: 3 HR, .268 BA, .804 OPS<br />
Player B: 1 HR, .337 BA, .893 OPS</p>
<p>Um... their last 10 games?</p>
<p>Player A: 1 HR, .241 BA, .729 OPS<br />
Player B: 0 HR, .400 BA, .917 OPS</p>
<p>Yeah.� So back to "You're The Manager".� Bottom of the 9th, two out, bases loaded.� Down by one run.� Derrek Lee is on second, who has decent speed, so a base hit will probably get the winning run home.</p>
<p>If you're the manager, who do you send up to the plate?� If you're Tony LaRussa, you send up Player A, and you watch as Player A hits a fly ball to right field that is easily caught to end the game.� You lose, as Player B remains on the bench.</p>
<p>Perhaps Tony LaRussa was acting under misguided loyality, since this was an All-Star game and one of those players was from his team, the St. Louis Cardinals.� All-Star managers often stick to what is familiar to them.</p>
<p>Except that it was Player B who was on the Cardinals, not Player A.</p>
<p>For those who haven't figured out by now, Player B is Albert Pujols, while Player A is Aaron Rowand.� Rowand, playing center field and 0-1 with a strikeout since coming in for Ken Griffey a few innings earlier, was scheduled to be the 8th batter in the NL lineup when the 9th inning started, and probably didn't think he'd be batting when the first two NL batters were retired, leaving two outs with none on.� Then Dmitri Young, hitting for pitcher Trevor Hoffman, got an infield base hit, followed up by a two run home run from Alfonso Soriano.� Now it's 5-4, with two outs and no one on.</p>
<p>J.J. Hardy walks.� Jim Leyland has enough, and pulls Seattle closer J.J. Putz for Anaheim closer Francisco Rodriguez.� Rodriguez walks Derrek Lee.� Rodriguez walks Orlando Hudson.� Rodriguez wets himself.</p>
<p>So now you have the bases loaded.� It's the bottom of the ninth.� Since Lee has some speed, anything outside of an infield single will probably get him in from second to win the game.� A walk ties the game, and brings up Freddy Sanchez, who isn't a horrible hitter.</p>
<p>So the question is who you'd rather have up to bat - the person more likely to get the base hit, or the person more likely to take advantage of the frazzled Rodriguez and take the walk to tie the game.</p>
<p>We've already stated that Pujols (Player B, for those not following) was the better career hitter, the better hitter the last few months, the better hitter the last month, and the better hitter over the last ten games.</p>
<p>Aaron Rowand has 29 walks this season.� Albert Pujols has 53.</p>
<p>So if you're Tony LaRussa and you want the base hit, you go to Pujols.� If you want the walk, you go to Pujols.� If you want the guy you're familiar with for the last six+ seasons, you go to Pujols.</p>
<p>But apparently, if you're Tony LaRussa last night, you go with Aaron Rowand.</p>
<p>LaRussa justified keeping Pujols on the bench by saying that he needed him in case the game went into extra innings.� That's a good strategy if you're tied at the moment that decision needs to be made.� You know, if it's currently possible to go into extra innings.� But when you're down by a run and it's the bottom of the 9th inning, extra innings isn't the most likely of situations.</p>
<p>But not using your best hitter in a do-or-die situation is the equivalent of bringing a knife to a gunfight because you've only got one bullet, and you might have a gunfight tomorrow.</p>
<p>Tomorrow doesn't matter if you're dead today.</p>
<p>MLB.com's game wrapup quoted Pujols:</p>
<blockquote><p>"Maybe he was saving me for next year's All-Star Game," Pujols jokingly said.</p></blockquote>
<p>Yeah, that "joking" didn't last long:</p>
<blockquote><p>"It's the All-Star game. He can do what he wants," Pujols said Tuesday night. "He does whatever he wants. If I wasn't expecting to play, I wouldn't have come up here."</p></blockquote>
<p>What's that, Albert?� Did you just question managerial mastermind Tony LaRussa?</p>
<blockquote><p>"If he wants to get upset, he can get upset," La Russa said. "Whatever he wants to do, he can do. It's America. That wasn't the most important thing tonight."</p></blockquote>
<p>So keeping every player happy wasn't the most important thing tonight, playing everyone wasn't the most important thing tonight, and winning wasn't the most important thing tonight.� Was there cancer research going on in the on-deck circle that hasn't been announced to the media?� Was it a dying child's wish to see Aaron Rowand bat twice in the All-Star game?</p>
<blockquote><p>"Once we lost (Miguel) Cabrera and (Freddy) Sanchez, he [Pujols] was the guy we were going to use to protect ourselves in case we kept playing because of Albert's versatility," La Russa said. "I think we had the right guy at bat."</p></blockquote>
<p>I missed when Freddy Sanchez got hurt, apparently, because he was still in the lineup, and would have batted after Rowand.</p>
<p>Now defensive issues aside, had Rowand been taken out for Pujols and Pujols walked or taken an infield hit, leaving the game tied, then Freddy Sanchez (still alive) could have gotten out the following at-bat, putting the game into extra innings.� Pujols would have then had to move to left field, with Alfonso Soriano shifting over to center, leaving the National League with a less than desirable outfield defense.</p>
<p>However, under the scenario that LaRussa pictures, Pujols ends up at third base, a position he hadn't played regularly since his rookie season, and at all since 2002.</p>
<p>So why is Freddy Sanchez gone?� Is LaRussa thinking too far ahead of himself, planning on pinch hitting for Sanchez with Pujols in the following at-bat?� Considering that Sanchez is arguably a better hitter than Rowand too, it seems like a severe case of either over-management, or just plain dropping the ball.<!--more--></p>
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