And we hit the ground running again...

JULY 13th

• Cincinnati Reds acquire P Gary Majewski, P Bill Bray, SS Royce Clayton, and minor leaguers Brendan Harris (INF) and Daryl Thompson (P) from the Washington Nationals for SS Felipe Lopez, OF Austin Kearns, and minor leaguer Ryan Wagner (P)

I wrote an entire post about how bad Wayne Krivsky (then Cincinnati GM) was back in December of '06 after this deal somehow managed to get worse for Cincinnati. Some five years later, it's not as bad, but to this day it didn't make sense.

A week previous (see Part 1 of this article), Krivsky had swung a deal for closer Eddie Guardado, which was a low-risk investment of a fringe prospect for a future free agent. A half-game out of the wild card and four games out of first in the NL Central, Cincinnati felt that they had a legit shot at the playoffs. The thing holding them back, Krivsky believed, was their bullpen. Picking up Guardado was a start, but they needed more. So Krivsky reached out to Washington GM (and former Cincinnati GM) Jim Bowden and picked up two young middle relievers in Majewski and Bray to improve his bullpen, but in the process gave up their starting shortstop and right fielder, with no one waiting in the wings to take their place. Krivsky would later justify the deal by saying that Clayton (also acquired in the deal) was a defensive improvement at short over Lopez, while Ryan Freel and Chris Denorfia could fill Kearns' slot.

So how'd that work out?

Krivsky got ripped for making the deal, and the end results didn't help much. Clayton slugged 130 points less than Lopez (who was having an off year) and ended up losing playing time to Rich Aurilia, who was having a great year. Bray didn't pitch badly for the Reds, but Majewski (who was the key player Krivsky was aiming for) seemed to implode the moment he put on a Cincinnati uniform. The pitcher posted an 8.40 ERA over 15 innings pitched, giving up 30 hits in the process, and by August was put on the DL for a "tired arm". Majewski would pitch parts of two more seasons for Cincinnati, not faring much better in either of them.

The thing was that Washington didn't really make out either, especially considering what everyone thought they were getting. Kearns never hit as well in Washington as he did in Cincinnati, and struggled through two injury-plagued seasons before he left as a free agent after the 2009 season. Lopez struggled the season after he was traded to Washington and continued to decline until finally being released by the Nats midway through the 2008 season. He has played for five other teams (including St. Louis and Milwaukee twice!) since, and was recently designated for assignment by the Brewers, making a trip to the Atlantic League only a matter of time.

A WINNAR IS: Tampa. The Reds didn't seem to care about Harris, who sat in AAA until the Rays bought him from the Reds that offseason. Harris would then put up a .286/.343/.434 line in a career year starting at second and short for the Rays in 2007 (better than Clayton or Lopez would put up). The Rays then flipped him the following season with Delmon Young for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, who would help them get to the World Series the next year.

JULY 20th

• Atlanta Braves acquire P Bob Wickman from the Cleveland Indians for C Max Ramirez

So the Braves, despite being 12 games behind the Mets in the NL East, realized (like good teams do) that 1) they were a better team than their record and 2) the NL as a whole wasn't that good, so knowing that their bullpen was worse than Cincinnati's, they went out and got themselves a closer. Wickman had led the AL in saves the previous season, but Cleveland wasn't winning any games in 2006 (as possibly the unluckiest team in baseball that season), so a 37-year-old closer in the last year of his contract seemed unnecessary. Ramirez was a good hitting catching prospect in low-A ball blocked by Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia so he was expendable.

So how'd that work out?

Great for the Braves - just not enough. Wickman put up a 1.04 ERA with 18 saves in 28 appearances for Atlanta, but the Braves couldn't put all the pieces together and only went 34-33 after the trade - not good enough to nab the wild card. Ramirez hit great in the minors but struggled with the glove. Cleveland would send him to Texas the following season for Kenny Lofton, who would give him his only major league experience. This season, Texas would lose him on waivers to Boston, who would lose him on waivers to the Cubs five days later. The Cubs would then release Ramirez in May, where he would then sign with Houston (who would release him), and now finally San Francisco, where he is currently putting up good numbers in AAA.

A WINNAR IS: Atlanta. The Braves never would have come close to the playoffs had they not picked up Wickman, and Ramirez would still be stuck behind McCann.

JULY 21st

• San Francisco Giants acquire 1B/3B Shea Hillenbrand and P Vinnie Chulk from the Toronto Blue Jays for P Jeremy Accardo

It'd be nice to say that the Giants went out and got Hillenbrand from the Jays, but in reality Shea was already designated for assignment, so the Giants "acquired" Hillenbrand the same way you'd "acquire" an old futon on the curb on trash day. Shea, pissed off because the Blue Jays didn't send him a flower and candy assortment after he and his wife adopted a child, wrote negative comments about the team on a bulletin board in the team clubhouse, causing manager John Gibbons to challenge Hillenbrand to a fight. While Gibbons getting into fights with players happened every few months or so, the gift basket pissyness was apparently a dealbreaker, and Shea was told not to come back. The Giants, who were a half-game out of first in the NL West, figured having a complete dick at first base was still better than Mark Sweeney and Lance Niekro, so they swung a deal with Toronto before Hillenbrand was released.

So how'd that work out?

Having a complete dick at first base turned out not being better than Mark Sweeney and Lance Niekro. Hillebrand would put up a slash line of .248/.275/.415, which was slightly better than Niekro but worse than Sweeney. The Giants went 26-38 after the deal and quickly dropped out of playoff contention.

A WINNAR IS: The Blue Jays. They didn't get much out of Accardo that season (5.97 ERA in 28.2 innings), but dumping off Hillenbrand had to be considered a plus. Accardo would bounce back the following season, flourishing in the closer role after the departure of B.J. Ryan. He'd get hurt the following season and struggle after that, but that's still a decent haul for a player who was going to be released.

JULY 26th

• Seattle Mariners acquire 1B/DH Ben Broussard from the Cleveland Indians for OF Shin-Soo Choo and a player to be named later (P Shawn Nottingham)

Call this delayed karma from the Jay Buhner/Ken Phelps trade 18 years earlier. (Side note: holy crap - really? 18 years?) Seattle was in a battle for the AL West crown that no one really wanted to win (not unlike the NL Central). They didn't necessarily want to be, having shipped off Eddie Guardado some 20 days earlier, but without any other team running away with the division, Bill Bavasi ignored a cardinal rule for GMs - be a buyer or a seller, but not both. Doing a 180 degree turn, Bavasi looked at his team, saw Dinosaur Carl Everett at DH, and felt this was something that needed to be corrected. So he reached out and offered his system's #7 prospect to Cleveland for their first baseman. Broussard was a good hitter against righthanded pitching, and had a .321/.361/.519 slashline with 13 HR at the time of the trade. But the knock on Broussard was that he had difficulties with lefties.

NOT TO WORRY, because Bavasi had already traded the team's #6 prospect a month earlier to those same Cleveland Indians to get the player Broussard was platooning with at first base, Eduardo Perez. So, in the course of one month, Bavasi had gone from buyer to seller to buyer again.

So how'd that work out?

About as well as every other deal Bavasi did during his time with the Mariners. Broussard put up a .238/.282/.427 line the rest of the season with the M's (admittedly better than Perez's .195/.304/.241), which was made all the worse by Cleveland, who let Choo play in the majors and watched him put up a .295/.373/.473 line himself. Sometimes you have to wait several years to see if prospects will develop to be better players than the vets they are traded for. In this case, the prospect was better than the veteran AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE. Shockingly, Seattle would not make the playoffs that season, nor would they in any season since Bavasi was hired as GM in 2003.

A WINNAR IS: Like you have to ask. PS - the prospect the Indians got for Perez in the earlier deal? Asdrubal Cabrera, who made his first AL All-Star Team this year. Choo and Cabrera have a 27.5 WAR during their time with Cleveland, estimating that having those two players has won the Indians at least twenty-seven games they might not normally have won with an league average player. Broussard and Perez? -1.6 WAR, meaning that playing those two actually made the Mariners worse.

NEXT TIME - The Yankees get involved, the Brewers shake it up, and the Mets set themselves up for disaster.

Ah, 2006. Back when the Mets weren't a punchline, the best division in baseball was the AL Central, and some former catcher named Girardi took a gutted Marlins team, made it presentable, won Manager of the Year, then was fired. Good times.

2006 was a ripe situation for an active trade deadline. Boston and New York were being challenged by Toronto in the AL East, Chicago and Minnesota were watching Detroit have a hell of a season (they were 70-35 on July 31st) but were in wild card contention, last place Texas was only four games behind first place Oakland in the AL West, and the NL West had a similar tight race. Only Detroit and the Mets had comfortable leads in their respective divisions.

Standings as of July 31st, 2006:

AL East Division

Tm  W  L   W-L%  GB RS  RA  pythW-L%

BOS 63 41 .606   -- 577 512 .554

NYY 61 41 .598  1.0 570 490 .569

TOR 57 48 .543  6.5 565 512 .545

BAL 48 59 .449 16.5 526 611 .432

TBD 44 62 .415 20.0 473 572 .414

AL Central Division

Tm  W  L   W-L%  GB RS  RA  pythW-L%

DET 70 35 .667   -- 549 418 .622

CHW 62 42 .596  7.5 596 507 .573

MIN 61 43 .587  8.5 531 464 .561

CLE 45 59 .433 24.5 567 538 .524

KCR 37 68 .352 33.0 479 621 .383

AL West Division

Tm  W  L   W-L%  GB RS  RA  pythW-L%

OAK 56 50 .528   -- 475 476 .499

LAA 54 51 .514  1.5 513 493 .518

SEA 52 53 .495  3.5 504 494 .509

TEX 52 54 .491  4.0 530 526 .503

NL East Division

Tm  W  L   W-L%  GB RS  RA  pythW-L%

NYM 63 41 .606   -- 566 475 .580

PHI 49 55 .471 14.0 526 550 .480

FLA 49 56 .467 14.5 492 503 .490

ATL 48 56 .462 15.0 549 540 .508

WSN 47 59 .443 17.0 492 554 .446

NL Central Division

Tm  W  L   W-L%  GB RS  RA  pythW-L%

STL 58 46 .558   -- 512 494 .516

CIN 55 50 .524  3.5 521 534 .489

MIL 50 56 .472  9.0 492 565 .437

HOU 49 56 .467  9.5 476 504 .474

CHC 43 62 .410 15.5 437 540 .404

PIT 40 66 .377 19.0 483 549 .442

NL West Division

Tm  W  L   W-L%  GB RS  RA  pythW-L%

SDP 55 50 .524   -- 487 477 .509

ARI 54 51 .514  1.0 528 524 .503

COL 51 54 .486  4.0 487 473 .513

SFG 51 55 .481  4.5 495 500 .495

LAD 50 55 .476  5.0 524 506 .516

I'll be talking about trades that took place earlier than the 31st, but this is to give you an idea of what teams were looking at when they started making deals. So let's take a look.

JULY 5th

• St. Louis Cardinals acquire P Jeff Weaver (and lots o' cash) from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for minor league OF Terry Evans

A great deal of the bitterness I have towards Joe Torre during his time running the Yankees was his complete inability to handle a pitching staff that was unfamiliar to him. Torre was fine of nothing changed - Mussina, Wells, Clemens, Pettitte, El Duque, Stanton, Rivera - these were guys he knew. Torre would stick with the players he knew, even long after they were effective, until eventually they left, retired, or in Scott Proctor's case, their elbow exploded into a million pieces. Torre's unwillingness/inability to use Jeff Weaver when Weaver was acquired by the Yankees in a deal four years earlier I believe affected him so badly it ruined his career. I'll get into that some other time. Anyway, Weaver - who had signed a one-year deal with the LA Angels late in the offseason to reunite him with his younger brother Jared - was getting wrecked in LA after managing to salvage his career with the Dodgers the previous two seasons. St. Louis was leading the NL Central despite having a rotation that featured Jason Marquis, a self-destructing Mark Mulder, and Sidney Ponson, so Weaver seemed like an upgrade. Also, since the Angels would be paying most of Weaver's salary and acquiring Weaver meant they could cut Ponson, they likely made money solely on the cash saved on the pre-game spread. You know, because Sid was a big guy. And he probably ate a lot.

So how'd that work out?

Better than it should have for the Cardinals. Weaver struggled at first for St. Louis but after several doses of Dave Duncan's magic powder Weaver settled down, posting a 3-1 record with a 4.15 ERA in six starts down the stretch in September as the Cards took the NL Central. It was during the playoffs that Weaver shined, however, as he went 3-2 in the postseason with a 2.43 ERA, shutting the door on Detroit in Game 5 of the World Series to give the Cardinals their first championship since 1982.

The Angels accomplished what they meant to in that they opened up the rotation slot for Jered Weaver with the deal. Evans, the minor leaguer picked up in the deal, played well in the minors but could never crack the major league roster for any length of time and would leave the organization as a minor league free agent after the 2010 season.

A WINNAR IS: The Cardinals, for giving up nothing, getting something they could use essentially for free, and not being brave/foolhardy enough to re-sign Weaver in the offseason (he'd sign with Seattle, and go back to sucking.)

JULY 6th

• Cincinnati Reds acquire P Eddie Guardado (and several of Eddie's future paychecks) from the Seattle Mariners for minor league P Travis Chick

Guardado signed a free agent deal to be the M's closer after the M's won 93 games with Shigetoshi Hasegawa closing out games for them, and while "Everyday Eddie" pitched fine for Seattle, the rest of the team gave him nothing to save. With the M's seemingly in rebuild mode and Guardado losing his closer job to J.J. Putz, Guardado was very much available. Cincinnati, in contention for the NL Central crown and the wild card slot, realized that no team should go into battle with David Weathers as their closer, so they sent a not-so-special prospect to Seattle to give themselves an "established closer".

So how'd that work out?

Great for the Reds... for a little while. Guardado seemed re-energized in returning to the closer role, but was bothered by some forearm stiffness here and there through late July and early August. He finally hit the DL, and the team later learned that he had a torn UCL, would need Tommy John surgery, and would be gone for the season. Cincinnati would struggle down the stretch and would come short of the playoffs. As for Chick, he played well enough in AA that season for Seattle to earn a cup of coffee with the M's, but wouldn't see the majors again, and is currently out of baseball.

A WINNAR IS: No one - had Cincinnati turned to another option at closer instead of Guardado, they may have had someone there for the stretch run. Had the Reds worked out a deal for say Francisco Cordero - who was acquired by division rival Milwaukee - they might have made the playoffs and not later overpaid Cordero in free agency while still desperately searching for that "proven closer".

JULY 12th

• Houston Astros acquire OF/3B Aubrey Huff from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for minor leaguers Mitch Talbot (P) and Ben Zobrist (SS)

These were the good ol' days when the Rays were the Devil Rays and could be counted on to lose 100 games a season. Huff was one of their best offensive players and affordable since the D-Rays had bought out his arbitration years after a 2003 season which saw him put up a .311/.367/.555 slashline with 34 HR and 107 RBI, so you can excuse them for not shipping him out sooner, but with him in the last year of his contract and coming off a .261/.321/.428 season the year before, the D-Rays were looking to get anything and not risk playing the "will he accept arbitration" game during the offseason and potentially getting either nothing in return or an overpriced replacement-level player blocking their top prospects.

The Astros, on the other hand, were trying. At 43-46 and six games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central that no one wanted to win, Houston knew it had the pitching (Oswalt/Pettitte/Clemens and a solid bullpen) but outside of Lance Berkman, its bats were laughable. When your regular starting lineup features Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett and your regular outfield consists of Preston Wilson, Willy Taveras, and Jason Lane, you can see why "league average bat" would be seen as "OMG MONSTER MASHER".

So how'd that work out?

Houston was the best team in the Central from then on, but it wasn't enough, and the Astros finished a game and a half out of first. Huff hit about as well for the Astros as he did for the D-Rays that season (.250/.341/.478), but it did get Lane (.201/.318/.392) out of the lineup, so there's that. The Astros didn't offer arbitration to Huff (or anyone, as was the Astros' style at the time), so they received no compensation when Huff signed with the Orioles after the season.

As for the D-Rays, Talbot stayed in the minors, stalling at AAA for a few seasons until finally getting a shot with Cleveland when the Rays sent him over in a deal for Kelly Shoppach. Zobrist, who Baseball America at the time of the deal projected as a future utility role, got a chance to play at the major league level when the D-Rays traded starting shortstop Julio Lugo two weeks later. After riding the Durham to Tampa shuttle for a few seasons, Zobrist would finally stick as a utility player (he played six positions in 2008, then seven the following season), and a sudden power surge saw Zobrist make his first all-star team in 2009, where he'd end up placing 8th in the AL MVP balloting with a .297/.405/.543 slashline.

A WINNAR IS: Tampa, without question. You could argue that if the Rays only received Talbot (who they later flipped for Shoppach, who is currently on their roster), they'd win this deal. Zobrist makes this a steal.

NEXT TIME - Wayne Krivsky makes my head hurt, Shea Hillenbrand doesn't like anybody, and the Mariners learn nothing from Ken Phelps.

The Cubs, for pulling the trigger at the last possible minute of prospect value, still manage to get serviceable players. Olson was a first round sandwich pick in 2005 out of Cal Poly who has put up strong strikeout numbers through his minor league career, but hasn't been able to make the transition from minor league ace to major league starter. After putting up great numbers at AAA Norfolk in 2007 (3.16 ERA, 8.4 k/9, 1.05 WHIP in 22 starts) and not so great in a cup of coffee that same year, Olson spent most of the 2008 season with the Orioles, and stuck with not so great. The talent seems to be there (as his minor league career shows), and he's only 25 - around the same age John Maine was when the O's shipped him off to the Mets for Anna Benson's husband. Add in Williamson, who has a live arm (11.0 k/9 in 90 career innings) and who could potentially have upside, although it's pretty early to tell.

Overall this is one of those "change of scenery" trades that can work out for both teams. Both main guys are prospects who can't be called that much longer who have nothing left to prove at the AAA level, but haven't been able to show that they deserve to stick at the major league level. Of the two, the Orioles are most likely to see returns on the trade, since Olson making the Cubs major league roster isn't a given, but the Orioles are content with putting a player into the lineup and dealing with the lumps (as they did with Adam Jones last season). Figure Pie will get a shot at being the everyday center fielder or left fielder (depending on where he and Jones end up). That, and Pie is probably out of options - I figure he would have used two the last two seasons, and if 2005 was his third "real" season in the Cubs organization, then he would have burned an option in 2006 as well (surely the Cubs would have protected him from Rule 5 given his prospect level.)? So figure the Cubs have Johnson, Alfonso Soriano, Fukudome, Milton Bradley, and Joey Gathwright (!) all under contract for next season, and with it being unlikely that the Cubs could move Fukudome, then Pie would end up getting sent down and having to clear waivers, which wouldn't happen.

I don't think Pie ever got a fair shot in Chicago, and that's not necessarily Chicago's fault. It's one thing when you're the Orioles (or the Rays in past seasons) and can afford to put a developing player out onto the field and deal with 0-5 nights, but the Cubs are in a tough division where a few games here and there could mean the difference between the playoffs and another season without a World Series. Pie was given opportunities, but when he failed in those two that he was given, the Cubs had no other choice than to look elsewhere. Pie could turn into another Brandon Phillips, but in this case, the Cubs are actually getting something for Pie, where Cleveland just tried to get Phillips through waivers and ended up having to deal him to Cincinnati for pennies on the dollar.

WINNER: Orioles, but for the wrong reasons.

RHP Scott Linebrink

Padres receives:

RHP Will Inman
LHP Steve Garrison
LHP Joe Thatcher

Thoughts: Linebrink was a nobody until the Padres got him off waivers from the Astros and made him a full time reliever. He was probably one of the top setup men in baseball for a few years until I drafted him last year in my Scoresheet league. He was pulling an ERA around 2 and a WHIP around 1 while striking out a guy an inning, but last year started giving up more hits (raising his ERA in the process) and this season has seen his strikeouts go down and his ERA push 4.

Inman was impressive as hell last season in A-ball (leading the league in Ks) and was tearing up A-ball again this year but then struggled in AA. He's still only 20. Thatcher's 25 and was pitching in the Frontier League two seasons ago but has been scary this season in AA (0.55 ERA in 16.1 innings with 20 Ks against 2 BB) and AAA (2.08 ERA in 21.2 innings with 33 Ks against 7 BB), and will take Linebrink's spot on the Padres 25-man roster. Garrison's 20 years old as well, but hasn't been that impressive in A-ball (8-4, 3.44 ERA, 6.36 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 in 20 starts), but he's lefthanded dammit.

Overall, I like Doug Melvin and all, but I think San Diego made out like bandits here. Not necessarily a Krivsky-level blindside, but I think Linebrink has something going on with either his mechanics or an injury that's going to keep him from being the player he was in 2004 and 2005 that the Brewers need him to be for this deal to pay off for them, especially if Inman ends up shaking off his issues in AA.

There are players I'm in a continuing league with who I can't remember ever making a trade outside of a draft pick for draft pick trade ("I'll give you my April pick for a pick in June").  This can be chalked up to a few things, and while I won't mention any of them specificly with these guys (some apply for some, some apply to others), surely the players in my leave that have tried to deal with them (and pretty much anyone in any league) have seen these guys too.

All too often, you hear complaints that there isn't enough "action" in the league - no one is making trades, no one is pushing out offers, no one is returning my offers, etc.  Just because you're active doesn't mean that you're necessarily stirring up the pot for good trade activity.  Just the same as someone who won't call anyone back, there are team owners who from afar seem to be the biggest dealers in the league, but upon closer look are as tough to deal with as the owner who disappears.

Some hints:

• Be specific.  Sending out a generalized email to the league saying "I need starting pitching - email me" will get you zero.  No kidding - everyone needs starting pitching.  If you're a seller and looking to trade off a good starting pitcher chances are that you've already scouted out teams that are going to need the starter you're offering and contacted them.  Very rarely will a guy who has a top line starting pitcher that they're shopping say "oh crap - team 3 needs a starting pitcher?  Thank the heavens for his email!"  The only thing you're going to get out of an email like that is people shopping starting pitchers who you don't want, or worse yet the "I've got starting pitching, let me know" reply, which turns into a painful process if anything.  If you're going to send out a league-wide email, talk about the bait first (who you're shopping), then what you want for it.  Someone who might have ignored that email because they have six starting pitchers and don't want to lose their depth may see that name you're dangling and send you an offer they wouldn't have before.  You're not hurting a player's feelings by dangling him as bait - this isn't real.
• Be realistic.  Nothing will kill a deal (and a trading relationship) quicker than asking for the farm for your mediocre utility infielder.  Shooting high is encouraged and understandable - see what that owner is willing to offer - but set the bar too high and you'll scare off someone and possibly get labeled in a way that will keep anyone from dealing with you.  No one likes to waste time, so set your sights realisticly, and while you're at it, try...
• View the deal from the other team's perspective.  If your trading partner isn't returning your emails, take a look at the trade from his perspective.  Is there any reason he should do it?  What does he get out of it?  The best and easiest made trades are the ones where someone who has a position of depth and a position of need finds a trading partner with an opposite position of depth and need.  It goes back to Sesame Street - one guy has a whole bunch of bread but no meat, while the other guy has a whole bunch of meat but no bread.  They get together, and suddenly everyone's eating sandwiches.  Dump/future trades aren't as easy - you, as the GM who's looking to score a big name player by trading off prospects or cheap contracts, aren't going to be giving equal value statisticly.  From your view, you're dealing off a handful of players who might not be starting for you or contributing in the slightest for a top player at his position.  Sure, you think, why shouldn't this guy do the deal?  It's not like he's going to win this season anyway.  But there are several other GMs in the same mindframe who want that same player, so your deal has to be the better offer.  Could this deal come back to bite you in the ass?  Offering up the discounted Wes Helms and the potential "breakout" of Eric Duncan might seem fair to you, but if that player you're shooting for is worth anything, expect that other GM to ignore your offer and wait until something else better comes along.
• Do your research.  If your best bargaining chip is your depth at shortstop, your first stop shouldn't be the team that has both Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez under contract.  Sure, he may have depth at another position you're looking for, but you've got nothing to offer him.    He may be willing to deal too, but you're going to get to that point where you realize that there's nothing you guys can do, and that's just wasted time.
• Start off with an offer.  I've had trade talks with owners that have numbered in double digit emails without one trade offer being put on the table.  All of that is posturing and wasted time chalked up to ownership that is afraid to be taken in a deal.  One of the biggest fears of a fanalytic owner is to make an offer and have it taken immedately, with snickering in the background.  It doesn't matter if it helped you, if the league thinks you got taken, then you're going to catch hell for it for the entire season.  Hell, even if that move helps you win that season, if you traded away good prospects that end up blossoming, then you'll have that trade thrown back in your face for years to come.  They won't remember that the trade helped you win the championship - it was that you traded away that franchise player.  That being said, you'll get plenty of owners who are afraid to make an offer because they're not secure in knowing how valuable their players are.  Get two of these teams together, and it's the longest trade discussion that doesn't go anywhere.  Do the research, and start off the discussion with an offer - it doesn't have to be a perfect offer, but it at least is getting the players on the table and will give you a hint as to who is available and who isn't.  It also lets the other person know that you mean business and are willing to make a deal right now, and that the pressure is on him to either accept or tell you why he won't.  Again though, don't make it too crazy of an offer, because you'll scare off anything that might come out of it, but if you are willing to open up (by making that initial offer), then your target GM will be much more willing to open up as well.
• Reply back, no matter how bad.  I'll admit I don't listen to my own advice as often as I should, and here is one of my main weak spots.  It's real easy to get a bad offer (or even a vague inquiry) and ignore it or shrug it off.  But keep in mind that the GM specificly emailed you (or contacted you - I use email as a general term because that's all the contact I seem to make, but there are some owners who enjoy the phone) so he sees something and therefore did at least a little research.  Take a little time to either check out his roster and let him know why you wouldn't do that deal (or what you're interested in on his side if he's just giving you the "I like X, what would you want for him?" email).  It's courteous, and it also prevents the sender from sending 300 "did you get my email?!?!?!" followups because he may still think that his deal is good, and that you've got a crappy email client or something, and that's the only thing standing between his Bruce Chen for Cole Hamels deal getting accepted by you.

I'll follow this up in the near future with a look at some of the deals I did this season, how I did them, and some of the deals that didn't quite work out.